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50 Years of Eviction Risk in America (1976-2025): The Data

The national population-weighted average Eviction Risk Score rose from 2.68 in 1976 to 4.75 in 2025 — a 77% increase across 31,783 US cities. On our 0–10 scale, where higher means stronger tenant protections, American rental markets have become substantially more regulated over the past half century. But the climb was anything but steady, and in a meaningful slice of the country it never happened at all. Here is the 50-year arc, decade by decade, city by city, state by state.

By NextGen Properties · NGP-EvictStats-v12.2 historical series · Updated July 2026

The National Arc: Five Decades in One Table

Averaging the national series by decade shows a story with a surprise at the start: the country got less tenant-protective before it got more so. The 1980s average (2.52) sits below the late-1970s average (2.63), and the series bottoms out at 2.33 in 1987 — the most landlord-friendly year in the entire half century.

PeriodAverage national score (0–10)Change vs. prior period
1976–1979 2.63
1980s 2.52 -0.11
1990s 2.93 +0.41
2000s 3.22 +0.29
2010s 3.86 +0.64
2020–2025 4.99 +1.13

The yearly data reveals three distinct waves of regulation, each sharper than the last:

  • The early-1990s step. After hovering below 2.6 through the deregulatory 1980s, the national average jumped from 2.55 in 1991 to 2.97 in 1992 — a +0.42 one-year move — then settled into a long plateau between roughly 3.0 and 3.2 that held for fifteen years, through 2007.
  • The foreclosure-crisis climb. The plateau broke in 2008: 3.08 in 2007 became 3.56 in 2008 and 3.79 by 2009, as jurisdictions layered on protections in response to the housing collapse. The average reached 3.89 by 2011 and drifted gently upward through the 2010s, ending the decade at 4.15 in 2019.
  • The pandemic spike. 2020 delivered the largest single-year move in the 50-year series: 4.15 to 5.43, a jump of 1.28 points. The average peaked at 5.44 in 2021, then gave back roughly half the surge as emergency measures expired — 4.83 in 2022, 4.68 in 2023 — before stabilizing. At 4.75 in 2025, the country remains 0.60 points above its 2019 pre-pandemic level: the emergency receded, but a meaningful share of the protections stayed.

Put simply: half a century of change concentrated into three short bursts — 1992, 2008–2011, and 2020 — separated by long stretches where the national number barely moved.

The Biggest Transformations: 15 Cities That Changed Most

Among US cities with populations of 100,000 or more, the 15 largest 50-year gains are geographically lopsided to a striking degree: 14 of the 15 are in California, with Albany, New York the lone outsider. Oakland, Los Angeles, and Long Beach each gained 6.5 points, moving from the low 3s in 1976 to 9.7–9.9 in 2025 — from unremarkable mid-pack markets to some of the most tenant-protective cities in America. The pattern reflects California’s layering of statewide law on top of aggressive local ordinances, which lifted not just the famous coastal markets but inland cities like Fresno, Palmdale, and Hesperia by nearly identical amounts.

City State 1976 score 2025 score 50-yr change
Oakland CA 3.4 9.9 +6.5
Los Angeles CA 3.4 9.9 +6.5
Long Beach CA 3.2 9.7 +6.5
Fresno CA 2.7 9.1 +6.4
San Francisco CA 3.3 9.7 +6.4
Sacramento CA 3.0 9.3 +6.3
San Jose CA 3.1 9.3 +6.2
Santa Ana CA 3.0 9.2 +6.2
Albany NY 3.8 9.9 +6.1
San Diego CA 2.9 8.9 +6.0
Palmdale CA 2.8 8.6 +5.8
East Los Angeles CA 2.7 8.5 +5.8
Burbank CA 2.8 8.6 +5.8
Chula Vista CA 2.6 8.4 +5.8
Hesperia CA 2.6 8.3 +5.7

Where Time Stood Still (or Reversed)

The mirror image is just as concentrated. Every one of the 15 largest 50-year declines among big cities sits in the South or its border states: Tennessee places five cities on the list (Knoxville, Chattanooga, Nashville, Clarksville, Murfreesboro), Alabama four, Kentucky and Georgia two each, plus Little Rock and Broken Arrow. Little Rock, Arkansas is the biggest faller in America: 4.1 in 1976 down to 2.2 in 2025, a decline of 1.9 points. These are largely states that adopted preemption laws barring their cities from regulating rents or adding local tenant protections — so as the rest of the country ratcheted upward, their scores drifted down.

City State 1976 score 2025 score 50-yr change
Little Rock AR 4.1 2.2 -1.9
Sandy Springs GA 3.3 2.3 -1.0
Knoxville TN 3.4 2.4 -1.0
Huntsville AL 3.4 2.4 -1.0
Chattanooga TN 3.5 2.6 -0.9
Nashville TN 3.4 2.5 -0.9
Clarksville TN 3.4 2.5 -0.9
Murfreesboro TN 3.4 2.5 -0.9
Mobile AL 3.6 2.8 -0.8
Louisville KY 3.2 2.4 -0.8
Lexington-Fayette urban county KY 3.2 2.4 -0.8
Montgomery AL 3.6 2.8 -0.8
Broken Arrow OK 2.6 1.9 -0.7
Birmingham AL 3.6 2.9 -0.7
Columbus GA 3.5 2.8 -0.7

Every State, Then and Now

Across all 51 jurisdictions, 38 rose and 13 fell between 1976 and 2025. The most striking finding is divergence: in 1976 the gap between the most tenant-protective state (West Virginia, 4.52) and the least (Utah, 1.77) was 2.75 points. By 2025 the spread between New York (9.18) and North Dakota (1.84) had widened to 7.34 points — the gap between the most and least tenant-protective states nearly tripled in 50 years. And the 1976 ranking would be unrecognizable today: Arkansas (4.11) and West Virginia (4.52) both scored above New York (3.88) in 1976; by 2025 New York had reached 9.18 while Arkansas had fallen to 2.38.

State 1976 score 2025 score 50-yr change
Alabama 3.44 2.40 -1.04
Alaska 2.32 3.33 +1.01
Arizona 1.99 2.77 +0.78
Arkansas 4.11 2.38 -1.73
California 2.78 8.46 +5.68
Colorado 1.87 4.82 +2.95
Connecticut 2.93 6.76 +3.83
Delaware 2.49 4.37 +1.88
District of Columbia 3.50 9.10 +5.60
Florida 2.52 2.54 +0.02
Georgia 3.32 2.65 -0.67
Hawaii 2.47 5.36 +2.89
Idaho 1.98 2.13 +0.15
Illinois 2.19 4.79 +2.60
Indiana 2.15 2.43 +0.28
Iowa 2.10 2.59 +0.49
Kansas 1.83 2.30 +0.47
Kentucky 3.21 2.48 -0.73
Louisiana 3.05 3.04 -0.01
Maine 2.95 4.68 +1.73
Maryland 2.37 6.20 +3.83
Massachusetts 3.16 6.24 +3.08
Michigan 2.23 3.34 +1.11
Minnesota 3.12 5.16 +2.04
Mississippi 2.73 2.59 -0.14
Missouri 2.61 2.55 -0.06
Montana 2.05 2.28 +0.23
Nebraska 2.08 2.93 +0.85
Nevada 2.27 4.43 +2.16
New Hampshire 2.61 3.93 +1.32
New Jersey 4.34 7.72 +3.38
New Mexico 2.25 3.83 +1.58
New York 3.88 9.18 +5.30
North Carolina 2.49 2.86 +0.37
North Dakota 2.47 1.84 -0.63
Ohio 2.36 2.75 +0.39
Oklahoma 2.79 2.29 -0.50
Oregon 2.91 7.09 +4.18
Pennsylvania 2.90 4.37 +1.47
Rhode Island 3.07 5.64 +2.57
South Carolina 2.97 2.55 -0.42
South Dakota 2.37 1.86 -0.51
Tennessee 3.39 2.49 -0.90
Texas 2.25 2.61 +0.36
Utah 1.77 2.22 +0.45
Vermont 2.39 5.13 +2.74
Virginia 1.82 3.78 +1.96
Washington 2.47 7.03 +4.56
West Virginia 4.52 3.06 -1.46
Wisconsin 2.04 3.08 +1.04
Wyoming 2.67 2.68 +0.01

About the Data: How the 50-Year Series Is Built

Every figure on this page comes from the NGP-EvictStats-v12.2 model, which scores US cities from 0 (most landlord-friendly) to 10 (most tenant-protective) using statutes, local ordinances, court timelines, and market conditions. The national line is the population-weighted average across 31,783 cities; state figures are population-weighted within each state; city tables cover cities of 100,000+ residents.

The 50-year series is a historical reconstruction: each year’s score is produced by applying the model to the laws and conditions in force that year, using dated legislative records. Segments before 2005 are a modeled reconstruction, not a direct measurement — recent years draw on observed court and market data, while earlier years are back-cast from the documented legal record. The full method, including the model changelog and how observed and modeled segments are distinguished, is documented on our methodology page.

Explore the underlying numbers further: the annual national series is downloadable on our open data page, current-year rankings and state-by-state figures live in our eviction statistics hub, and any city’s own 50-year history is charted on its profile via the interactive map.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much more tenant-protective are US rental markets than in 1976?

Substantially. The national population-weighted average Eviction Risk Score rose from 2.68 in 1976 to 4.75 in 2025 — a 77% increase across 31,783 US cities. On our 0-10 scale, higher scores mean stronger tenant protections and a slower, more regulated eviction process for landlords. The climb was not steady: the average actually declined through the 1980s to a half-century low of 2.33 in 1987 before three distinct waves of regulation — the early 1990s, the 2008-2011 foreclosure-crisis years, and the 2020 pandemic response — pushed it to today's level.

What caused the 2020 spike in eviction risk scores?

The jump from 4.15 in 2019 to 5.43 in 2020 is the largest single-year move in the entire 50-year series, and it coincides with the wave of federal, state, and local eviction moratoria and emergency tenant protections adopted during the COVID-19 pandemic. The national average peaked at 5.44 in 2021, then retreated as emergency measures expired — but only partway. At 4.75 in 2025, the national average remains 0.60 points above its 2019 pre-pandemic level, because many jurisdictions made parts of their emergency protections permanent.

Which states changed the most over 50 years?

California gained the most: from 2.78 in 1976 to 8.46 in 2025, a rise of 5.68 points. The District of Columbia (+5.60) and New York (+5.30) are close behind, with Washington (+4.56) and Oregon (+4.18) rounding out the top five. At the other end, 13 of 51 jurisdictions scored lower in 2025 than in 1976, led by Arkansas (-1.73), West Virginia (-1.46), and Alabama (-1.04). Notably, Arkansas (4.11) and West Virginia (4.52) both scored above New York (3.88) in 1976 — a ranking that has completely inverted.

How are the historical scores calculated?

All figures come from the NGP-EvictStats-v12.2 model, which scores every US city from 0 (most landlord-friendly) to 10 (most tenant-protective) using statutes, local ordinances, court timelines, and market data. The 50-year series is a historical reconstruction: each year's score is computed by applying the model to the laws and conditions in force that year. Years before 2005 are a modeled segment built from dated legislative records rather than direct measurement, and the full methodology, including how observed and modeled segments are distinguished, is documented on our methodology page.

Cite This Page

Journalists, researchers, and bloggers are welcome to cite any statistic on this page with attribution. Preferred citation:

“50 Years of Eviction Risk in America (1976–2025),” Eviction Risk Map, NextGen Properties (evictionriskmap.com), https://evictionriskmap.com/50-years-of-eviction-risk/

For the machine-readable annual series behind this analysis, see the open data page; for current-year figures, the eviction statistics hub.

Scores are NGP-EvictStats-v12.2 model outputs; years before 2005 are a modeled historical reconstruction from dated legislative records. Informational only, not legal advice.