Fourth Avenue Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate

Pulling the other way is rent-regulation exposure, at 1/10. 76% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building two streets over. 24% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate.

Set annual rent against average household income of $33,717 and the ratio lands at 33%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. The poverty rate is 31%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. 19.9% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, against a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

The 3 tracts inside this boundary do not behave alike. Individual scores run 3.7 to 5.4, a 1.7-point gap wide enough that the area average misleads on any specific address. CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 25.1% of adults, against 14.2% nationally.

At $919 a month, rents sit 17% under what the rest of Birmingham commands. Well under the midpoint is supply constraint, at 2.8/10.

The filing record is not thin: 1,307 evictions logged in this tract. The worst year on record was 2001, when filings touched 18.1% of renter households.

On the softer side is housing-court posture, at 3/10.

Underwrite the address, not the area: with 1.7 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.