Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
New Horizons Eviction Risk: Lower , Chandler
Tract 04013422216 ·
Maricopa, AZ · pop 5,841 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
04013422216 is a census tract in the New Horizons area of Mesa, AZ. It scores 3/10 for landlords. It is home to 5,841 residents. Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10%Stable renters 10%Owners 80%
Tract context
Occupied units2,258
Renter share20.6%
SVI overall0.18
Poverty rate5.6%
Median income$92,124
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
75th percentile
#2 of 5 tracts In New Horizons
High
Within parent city
24th percentile
#102 of 133 tracts In Chandler
Low
Within county
21th percentile
#801 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
Low
Within state
40th percentile
#1,065 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Chandler and the region
Centroid at 33.3715, -111.8507 · click any tract to drill in
Why New Horizons scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Chandler
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
5.6% poverty · this tract
1.4
Supply constraint
$1,826 rent vs county FMR
4.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Chandler
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Chandler
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Chandler
2.5
How New Horizons compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 18
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
7%Socioeconomic
25%Household composition
62%Racial/ethnic minority
34%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
249Total filings over 5 yrs
14.54%Avg annual filing rate
20.3%Peak (2003)
40Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings by year2001 to 2005
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within New Horizons. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
7.6%Housing insecurity
4.3%Utility-shutoff threat
8.9%Food insecurity
5.5%SNAP enrollment
5.6%Transit barriers
7.6%No health insurance
13.5%Frequent mental distress
22.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in New Horizons
Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. 22% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1.4/10.
SNAP participation runs 5.5% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 8.9% against 17.8% nationally. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 249 filings here across 5 tracked years.
50% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, above the Maricopa County average of 46.0%. Average gross rent is $1,826, 13% above the Mesa average. It sits 0.7 points below the Maricopa County average of 3.7.
Filings peaked in 2003 at 20.3% of renter households. In a typical year about 14.5% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 20th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
At 21% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013422216
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013422216?
Census tract 04013422216 in the New Horizons neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013422216?
Median gross rent is $1,826/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013422216?
5.6% of residents in tract 04013422216 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,841.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013422216?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 18th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 7th, household 25th, minority 62th, housing 34th.
Q5
Is tract 04013422216 considered part of New Horizons?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013422216 fall within New Horizons (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013422216?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 249 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013422216 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 14.54% of renter households, peaking at 20.3% in 2003. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013422216 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013422216 compare to Chandler overall?
Tract 04013422216 scores 3/10, right in line with the parent city of Chandler at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chandler eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Chandler
Top eight tracts in Chandler ranked by composite eviction-risk score.