Within neighborhood
67
th percentile
Elevated
Neighborhood · Ranked #47,371 of 84,120 nationally
Surprise Original Townsite Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 04013060901 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 4,810 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
Census tract 04013060901 covers part of the Surprise Original Townsite area of El Mirage, AZ, and scores 4.1/10 on landlord eviction risk. Severe burden reaches 62%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
4.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 18%
Stable renters 7%
Owners 75%
Tract context
Occupied units1,543
Renter share24.6%
SVI overall0.78
Poverty rate10.5%
Median income$83,141
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
25
th percentile
Low
Within county
68
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
66
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Surprise and the region
Centroid at 33.6179, -112.3354 · click any tract to drill in
Why Surprise Original Townsite scores 4.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Surprise
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
10.5% poverty · this tract
2.6
Supply constraint
$1,783 rent vs county FMR
4.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Surprise
5.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Surprise
6.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Surprise
6.0
How Surprise Original Townsite compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 78
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 79%Socioeconomic
- 91%Household composition
- 80%Racial/ethnic minority
- 39%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 244Total filings over 5 yrs
- 98.78%Avg annual filing rate
- 137.0%Peak (2003)
- 59Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Surprise Original Townsite. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 16.9%Housing insecurity
- 9.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 21.6%Food insecurity
- 15.1%SNAP enrollment
- 11.4%Transit barriers
- 17.7%No health insurance
- 18.1%Frequent mental distress
- 30.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Surprise Original Townsite
72% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well clear of the Maricopa County average of 46.0%. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 8.9/10. On the softer side, state political climate reads 2.2/10.
Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.2/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 244 filings here across 5 tracked years.
Filings peaked in 2003 at 137.0% of renter households. In a typical year about 98.8% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 44% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 25% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
Social vulnerability reads 8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.
It tracks the Maricopa County average of 3.7 closely. Average gross rent is $1,783, close to the El Mirage average.
Annual rent works out to 26% of average household income of $83,141.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013060901
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013060901?
Census tract 04013060901 in the Surprise Original Townsite neighborhood scores 4.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013060901?
Median gross rent is $1,783/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 72% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013060901?
10.5% of residents in tract 04013060901 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,810.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013060901?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 78th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 79th, household 91th, minority 80th, housing 39th.
Q5
Is tract 04013060901 considered part of Surprise Original Townsite?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013060901 fall within Surprise Original Townsite (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013060901?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 244 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013060901 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 98.78% of renter households, peaking at 137.0% in 2003. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013060901 struggle to pay rent?
About 16.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013060901 compare to Surprise overall?
Tract 04013060901 scores 4.1/10, higher than the parent city of Surprise at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Surprise eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Surprise
Top eight tracts in Surprise ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Agua Fria
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Pueblo El Mirage RV Resort
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Agua Fria
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Agua Fria
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Agua Fria
4.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Agua Fria
4.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Pueblo El Mirage RV & Golf Resort
3.9
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Agua Fria
3.6
/ 10 · Low
Related
Explore the geography around tract 04013060901
Parent city ↑
Surprise
3.2 / 10
Parent county ↑
Maricopa
Parent state ↑
Arizona
Sibling tract →
Surprise Original Townsite
3.7 / 10
Sibling tract →
Surprise Original Townsite
4.6 / 10
Sibling tract →
Surprise Original Townsite
3 / 10
Methodology
How the score is built
Interactive map
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