Surprise Original Townsite Eviction Risk: Moderate

The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. Running cool, supply constraint reads 1/10.

Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. Adults with no health insurance runs 25.7% against 11.3% nationally. Against Maricopa County at 46.0%, 54% of renters here are cost-burdened.

The poverty rate is 24%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. The severe-burden share is 10%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Court records carry 183 eviction filings across 5 observed years. It sits 0.9 points above the Maricopa County average of 3.7.

SNAP participation runs 22.9% against 15.2% nationally. The worst year on record was 2003, when 6.8% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 5.7% of renter households face a filing.

That is riskier than roughly 53% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9.8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.