Neighborhood · Surprise, AZ

Surprise Original Townsite Eviction Risk: Lower

4 census tracts · pop 22,873 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 3.2/10 · range 2.2–4.3

Surprise Original Townsite is a white-hispanic neighborhood in Surprise with 4 census tracts and a population of 22,873 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 3.2/10 (Lower tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 59% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 25% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $1,584/month sits 22% lower than the Surprise citywide average ($2,033).

Risk score

3.2

Lower

4 tracts · population-weighted

Surprise Original Townsite vs Surprise How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

59.1% +84%

Surprise: 32.2%

Average gross rent

$1,584 -22%

Surprise: $2,033

Average HH income

$73,428 -21%

Surprise: $93,371

Poverty rate

12.5% +60%

Surprise: 7.8%

Renter share

33.3% +59%

Surprise: 20.9%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Surprise Original Townsite and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 4 tracts span score 2.2–4.3

Why Surprise Original Townsite scores 3.2

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 2.2–2.2 across tracts

2.2

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 5.1–5.1 across tracts

5.1

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 2.5–5.6 across tracts

3.2

Rent control risk

59% of income on rent · Range 1.0–5.6 across tracts

2.0

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 2.2–2.5 across tracts

2.4

Tenant organizing strength

33% renter households · Range 1.5–6.6 across tracts

2.6

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 2.0–6.0 across tracts

2.8

Economic stress

12.5% below poverty line · Range 1.1–6.0 across tracts

3.1

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 1.0–4.9 across tracts

3.4

Risk score comparison

Surprise Original Townsite vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Surprise Original Townsite?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution

0246810

Spread of 2.1 points from 2.2 to 4.3. This neighborhood crosses multiple risk tiers, so block-by-block conditions vary substantially.

Tracts as heat grid

4.3 3.4 3.0 2.2

Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.

Census tracts

4 tracts in Surprise Original Townsite

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
04013060801	4.3	5,922	54%	$975
04013060901	3.4	4,810	72%	$1,783
04013061029	3	5,110	68%	$1,627
04013061035	2.2	7,031	48%	$1,928

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 69

Pop-weighted across 4 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 69%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 78%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 68%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 53%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Surprise Original Townsite

Aggregated across 4 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

656Total filings (sum)
207.07%Avg annual filing rate
137.0%Peak year (2005)
35.17%Latest filed (2005)

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Surprise Original Townsite

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

14.7%Housing insecurity
8.3%Utility shutoff threat
19.7%Food insecurity
14.3%SNAP enrollment
16.3%No health insurance
32.5%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Surprise Original Townsite

What is the eviction-risk score for Surprise Original Townsite?

Surprise Original Townsite scores 3.2/10 (Lower tier) across 4 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Surprise Original Townsite compare to Surprise overall?

Surprise Original Townsite scores 0.8 points higher than Surprise overall (2.4/10). Renters spend 59% of income on rent vs 32% citywide. Average rent: $1,584 vs $2,033.

What is the average rent in Surprise Original Townsite?

Average gross rent in Surprise eviction risk Original Townsite is $1,584/month (pop-weighted across 4 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Surprise Original Townsite residents are renters?

33% of Surprise Original Townsite households are renter-occupied (vs 21% in Surprise). The neighborhood has 22,873 residents.

Is Surprise Original Townsite a high social-vulnerability area?

Surprise Original Townsite sits in the 69th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Which tracts in Surprise Original Townsite have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Surprise Original Townsite is census tract 04013060801 (score 4.3/10). Across the 4 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 2.2 to 4.3, a spread of 2.1 points.

How safe is Surprise Original Townsite for landlords?

Surprise eviction risk Original Townsite carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (3.2/10). Pop-weighted across 4 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Surprise as a whole (2.4/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Surprise Original Townsite?

Surprise Original Townsite has 21,674 residents (White-Hispanic Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (46.9%), Hispanic / Latino (38.5%), Other / Multiracial (7.4%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Surprise Original Townsite

3.8 Agua Fria 6 tracts · pop 25,957 2.9 Shawnee Village 2 tracts · pop 10,296 2.2 Veramonte 2 tracts · pop 10,712 2.1 Sanalina 2 tracts · pop 11,617 2.2 Kingswood Parke 2 tracts · pop 6,961 4.1 Pueblo El Mirage RV Resort 3 tracts · pop 9,534

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Surprise

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Surprise Original Townsite.

3 Arapaho Village 1 tracts · pop 2,866 2.9 Arizona Traditions 1 tracts · pop 2,363 2.7 Sierra 2 tracts · pop 4,622 2.6 Taos 1 tracts · pop 5,970 2.4 Bell West Ranch 2 tracts · pop 10,747 2.4 Acoma Court 2 tracts · pop 12,271

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