Tucson Eviction Risk: Moderate

The poverty rate is 35%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Annualized rent equals 34% of average household income of $39,098, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10.

On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. 16% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

It sits 1.3 points above the Pima County average of 3.9. Housing insecurity runs 25.7% against 14.2% nationally.

Against Pima County at 43.8%, 37% of renters here are cost-burdened. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 18.3% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Court records carry 1,194 eviction filings across 12 observed years.

The worst year on record was 2005, when 48.1% of renter households were served.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.