Within parent city
68
th percentile
Elevated
Census Tract · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally
Tucson Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 04019004117 · Pima, AZ · pop 5,576 · 79% of tract blocks fall in Tucson
Tract 04019004117 sits in Tucson eviction risk, AZ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.2/10. The severe-burden share is 27%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 23%
Stable renters 21%
Owners 56%
Tract context
Occupied units1,813
Renter share44.7%
SVI overall0.95
Poverty rate26.9%
Median income$55,341
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
85
th percentile
High
Within state
96
th percentile
Very High
National
65
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Tucson and the region
Centroid at 32.1606, -110.9277 · click any tract to drill in
Why Tucson scores 5.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
26.9% poverty · this tract
6.7
Supply constraint
$1,084 rent vs county FMR
2.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5
How Tucson compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 95
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 92%Socioeconomic
- 89%Household composition
- 90%Racial/ethnic minority
- 87%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 1,903Total filings over 12 yrs
- 17.68%Avg annual filing rate
- 33.7%Peak (2006)
- 163Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 32% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 23.9%Housing insecurity
- 15.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 32.6%Food insecurity
- 25.4%SNAP enrollment
- 17.0%Transit barriers
- 26.2%No health insurance
- 20.1%Frequent mental distress
- 40.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Tucson
The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10.
Adults with no health insurance runs 26.2% against 11.3% nationally. Food insecurity runs 32.6% against 17.8% nationally.
The poverty rate is 27%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. 52% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, above the Pima County average of 43.8%. It sits 1.3 points above the Pima County average of 3.9.
Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2.2/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 1,903 filings here across 12 tracked years. Filings peaked in 2006 at 33.7% of renter households.
In a typical year about 17.7% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 65th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9.6/10. Statewide the AZ average is 3.8, so this tract runs 1.4 points hotter.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 04019004117
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019004117?
Census tract 04019004117 in Tucson scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04019004117?
Median gross rent is $1,084/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 52% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04019004117?
26.9% of residents in tract 04019004117 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,576.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04019004117?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 95th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 92th, household 89th, minority 90th, housing 87th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019004117?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,903 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019004117 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 17.68% of renter households, peaking at 33.7% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 04019004117 struggle to pay rent?
About 23.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 15.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 04019004117 compare to Tucson overall?
Tract 04019004117 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Tucson
Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Vandenberg Village
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019002503
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Barrio Blue Moon
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019002504
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019003505
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Miracle Manor
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019003506
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Keeling
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
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