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Census Tract · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally

Tucson Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 04019004115 · Pima, AZ · pop 8,043 · 30% of tract blocks fall in Tucson

Census tract 04019004115 covers part of Tucson, AZ, and scores 5.2/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 8,043. Cost burden runs 29% here against 43.8% across Pima County.

Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 11% Stable renters 26% Owners 63%
Tract context
Occupied units2,395
Renter share37.0%
SVI overall0.96
Poverty rate21.4%
Median income$45,841

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
75 th percentile
Rank, 75th percentileLowHigh
#36 of 143 tracts In Tucson
High
Within county
78 th percentile
Rank, 78th percentileLowHigh
#59 of 270 tracts In Pima
High
Within state
96 th percentile
Rank, 96th percentileLowHigh
#72 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Very High
National
65 th percentile
Rank, 65th percentileLowHigh
#29,336 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Tucson and the region

Centroid at 32.1435, -110.9186 · click any tract to drill in

Why Tucson scores 5.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
21.4% poverty · this tract
5.3
Supply constraint
$891 rent vs county FMR
1.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5

How Tucson compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Tucson risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.25.2This tracttract 004115Tucson: 3.83.8Tucsonparent cityCounty: 3.93.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 96

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 2,639Total filings over 12 yrs
  • 25.93%Avg annual filing rate
  • 34.0%Peak (2007)
  • 183Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2004 to 2017
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040190041152004: 235 filings (31.03/100 renter HHs)2005: 247 filings (31.06/100 renter HHs)2006: 258 filings (32.44/100 renter HHs)2007: 270 filings (33.95/100 renter HHs)2008: 252 filings (31.69/100 renter HHs)2009: 219 filings (27.54/100 renter HHs)2010: 197 filings (19.76/100 renter HHs)2011: 194 filings (19.90/100 renter HHs)2012: 212 filings (21.74/100 renter HHs)2013: 191 filings (19.59/100 renter HHs)2016: 181 filings (21.12/100 renter HHs)2017: 183 filings (21.35/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 22% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Tucson

The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10. Running cool, supply constraint reads 1.5/10.

Severe burden reaches 19%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. SNAP participation runs 28.0% against 15.2% nationally.

Average gross rent is $891, 22% below the Tucson average. It sits 1.3 points above the Pima County average of 3.9. Housing insecurity runs 25.8% against 14.2% nationally.

The poverty rate is 21%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Court records carry 2,639 eviction filings across 12 observed years.

The worst year on record was 2007, when 34.0% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 25.9% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #29,336 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9.6/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 04019004115

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019004115?

Census tract 04019004115 in Tucson scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04019004115?

Median gross rent is $891/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 29% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04019004115?

21.4% of residents in tract 04019004115 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 8,043.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04019004115?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 96th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 93th, household 91th, minority 89th, housing 86th.
Q5

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019004115?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2,639 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019004115 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 25.93% of renter households, peaking at 34.0% in 2007. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6

What share of households in tract 04019004115 struggle to pay rent?

About 25.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 16.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 04019004115 compare to Tucson overall?

Tract 04019004115 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Tucson

Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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