2 census tracts · pop 6,794 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.6/10
· range 4.5–4.8
Elm-Erstan-Baker is a 2-tract neighborhood of Fayetteville, AR and houses 6,794 people. Scored across those inputs it reaches 4.6/10, placing it in the Moderate tier. Against a Fayetteville baseline of 29.6%, 45% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line.
85% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building two streets over. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure, at 1/10. Severe burden reaches 22%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears.
The poverty rate is 29%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest. On the softer side is eviction-process difficulty, at 2.5/10. At $881 a month, rents sit 17% under what the rest of Fayetteville commands.
Well under the midpoint is housing-court posture, at 2.5/10. That places it #4 of 9 neighborhoods in Fayetteville. Social vulnerability runs high at 8.1/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.
The 2 tracts here are tightly clustered, 0.3 points apart at the extremes. Annual rent works out to 23% of average household income of $45,952.
The area figure travels well to individual addresses here, though the per-tract table below still carries the detail. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
2 tracts · population-weighted
Elm-Erstan-Baker vs FayettevilleHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority56%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport90%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Elm-Erstan-Baker
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
17.6%Housing insecurity
13.7%Utility shutoff threat
23.4%Food insecurity
16.1%SNAP enrollment
13.2%No health insurance
37.6%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Elm-Erstan-Baker
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Elm-Erstan-Baker?
Elm-Erstan-Baker scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Elm-Erstan-Baker compare to Fayetteville overall?
Elm-Erstan-Baker scores 1.2 points higher than Fayetteville overall (3.4/10). Renters spend 45% of income on rent vs 30% citywide. Average rent: $881 vs $1,065.
Q3
What is the average rent in Elm-Erstan-Baker?
Average gross rent in Elm-Erstan-Baker is $881/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Elm-Erstan-Baker residents are renters?
85% of Elm-Erstan-Baker households are renter-occupied (vs 58% in Fayetteville). The neighborhood has 6,794 residents.
Q5
Is Elm-Erstan-Baker a high social-vulnerability area?
Elm-Erstan-Baker sits in the 79th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
Which tracts in Elm-Erstan-Baker have the highest eviction risk?
The highest-risk constituent tract in Elm-Erstan-Baker is census tract 05143010703 (score 4.8/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 4.5 to 4.8, a spread of 0.3 points.
Q7
How safe is Elm-Erstan-Baker for landlords?
Elm-Erstan-Baker carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.6/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Fayetteville as a whole (3.4/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q8
What is the demographic breakdown of Elm-Erstan-Baker?
Elm-Erstan-Baker has 7,139 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (59.1%), Other / Multiracial (14%), Black (non-Hispanic) (13.5%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
