Neighborhood · Fayetteville, AR

Elm-Erstan-Baker Eviction Risk: Elevated

2 census tracts · pop 6,794 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 6/10 · range 5.5–6.6

Elm-Erstan-Baker is a diverse neighborhood in Fayetteville with 2 census tracts and a population of 6,794 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 6/10 (Elevated tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 45% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 22% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $881/month sits 17% lower than the Fayetteville citywide average ($1,065).

Risk score

Elevated

2 tracts · population-weighted

Elm-Erstan-Baker vs Fayetteville How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

44.5% +50%

Fayetteville: 29.6%

Average gross rent

$881 -17%

Fayetteville: $1,065

Average HH income

$45,952 -22%

Fayetteville: $59,074

Poverty rate

28.8% +35%

Fayetteville: 21.4%

Renter share

84.9% +46%

Fayetteville: 58.2%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Elm-Erstan-Baker and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 2 tracts span score 5.5–6.6

Why Elm-Erstan-Baker scores 6

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 1.5–1.5 across tracts

1.5

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 4.8–4.8 across tracts

4.8

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 5.5–5.5 across tracts

5.5

Rent control risk

45% of income on rent · Range 1.0–1.0 across tracts

1.0

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 2.5–2.5 across tracts

2.5

Tenant organizing strength

85% renter households · Range 4.0–4.0 across tracts

4.0

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 2.5–2.5 across tracts

2.5

Economic stress

28.8% below poverty line · Range 5.2–9.6 across tracts

7.2

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 2.6–3.2 across tracts

2.9

Risk score comparison

Elm-Erstan-Baker vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Census tracts

2 tracts in Elm-Erstan-Baker

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
05143010703	6.6	3,086	55%	$842
05143010705	5.5	3,708	36%	$913

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 79

Pop-weighted across 2 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 77%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 38%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 56%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 90%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Elm-Erstan-Baker

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

17.6%Housing insecurity
13.7%Utility shutoff threat
23.4%Food insecurity
16.1%SNAP enrollment
13.2%No health insurance
37.6%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Elm-Erstan-Baker

What is the eviction-risk score for Elm-Erstan-Baker?

Elm-Erstan-Baker scores 6/10 (Elevated tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Elm-Erstan-Baker compare to Fayetteville overall?

Elm-Erstan-Baker scores 3.7 points higher than Fayetteville overall (2.3/10). Renters spend 45% of income on rent vs 30% citywide. Average rent: $881 vs $1,065.

What is the average rent in Elm-Erstan-Baker?

Average gross rent in Elm-Erstan-Baker is $881/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Elm-Erstan-Baker residents are renters?

85% of Elm-Erstan-Baker households are renter-occupied (vs 58% in Fayetteville). The neighborhood has 6,794 residents.

Is Elm-Erstan-Baker a high social-vulnerability area?

Elm-Erstan-Baker sits in the 79th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Which tracts in Elm-Erstan-Baker have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Elm-Erstan-Baker is census tract 05143010703 (score 6.6/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 5.5 to 6.6, a spread of 1.1 points.

How safe is Elm-Erstan-Baker for landlords?

Elm-Erstan-Baker carries a elevated-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (6/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Fayetteville as a whole (2.3/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Elm-Erstan-Baker?

Elm-Erstan-Baker has 7,139 residents (Diverse Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (59.1%), Other / Multiracial (14%), Black (non-Hispanic) (13.5%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Elm-Erstan-Baker

5.7 Maple Valley 2 tracts · pop 8,485 6.1 VA Hill 2 tracts · pop 6,779 6.7 The Vue 3 tracts · pop 13,758 5.8 University House 2 tracts · pop 6,936

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Fayetteville

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Elm-Erstan-Baker.

5.7 Maple Valley 2 tracts · pop 8,485 5.7 University House 2 tracts · pop 6,936 6.3 VA Hill 2 tracts · pop 6,779 5.5 The Cliffs 1 tracts · pop 4,224 6.7 The Vue 3 tracts · pop 13,758 4.9 Forest Heights 1 tracts · pop 2,164

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