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Neighborhood · Ranked #41,206 of 84,120 nationally

Elm-Erstan-Baker Eviction Risk: Moderate , Fayetteville

Tract 05143010705 · Washington County, AR · pop 3,708 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi

Census tract 05143010705 covers part of the Elm-Erstan-Baker area of Fayetteville, AR, and scores 4.5/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,708. Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.

Risk score
4.5
Moderate
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 27% Stable renters 49% Owners 24%
Tract context
Occupied units1,795
Renter share75.8%
SVI overall0.80
Poverty rate21.0%
Median income$58,527

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Elm-Erstan-Baker
Very Low
Within parent city
58 th percentile
Rank, 58th percentileLowHigh
#11 of 25 tracts In Fayetteville
Elevated
Within county
76 th percentile
Rank, 76th percentileLowHigh
#14 of 54 tracts In Washington County
High
Within state
77 th percentile
Rank, 77th percentileLowHigh
#193 of 823 tracts In Arkansas
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Fayetteville and the region

Centroid at 36.1059, -94.1550 · click any tract to drill in

Why Elm-Erstan-Baker scores 4.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Fayetteville
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.8
State political climate
Arkansas legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
21.0% poverty · this tract
5.2
Supply constraint
$913 rent vs county FMR
3.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Fayetteville
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Fayetteville
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Fayetteville
2.5

How Elm-Erstan-Baker compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Elm-Erstan-Baker risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.5This tracttract 0107053.4Fayettevilleparent city3.7Countyavg tract in county3.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 80

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Elm-Erstan-Baker. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Elm-Erstan-Baker

This is renter territory: 76% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. On the softer side, state political climate reads 1.5/10. 17% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

The poverty rate is 21%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.5/10. Average gross rent is $913, 14% below the Fayetteville average.

It sits 0.8 points above the Washington County average of 3.7. Nationally it ranks #41,206 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Social vulnerability reads 8.2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. roughly one in three of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.

Annual rent works out to 19% of average household income of $58,527.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 05143010705

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 05143010705?

Census tract 05143010705 in the Elm-Erstan-Baker neighborhood scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 05143010705?

Median gross rent is $913/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 36% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 05143010705?

21.0% of residents in tract 05143010705 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,708.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 05143010705?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 80th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 84th, household 22th, minority 48th, housing 96th.
Q5

Is tract 05143010705 considered part of Elm-Erstan-Baker?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 05143010705 fall within Elm-Erstan-Baker (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 05143010705 struggle to pay rent?

About 14.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 05143010705 compare to Fayetteville overall?

Tract 05143010705 scores 4.5/10, higher than the parent city of Fayetteville at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Fayetteville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Fayetteville

Top eight tracts in Fayetteville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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