Neighborhood · Ranked #6,848 of 84,120 nationally

Elm-Erstan-Baker Eviction Risk: Elevated , Fayetteville

Tract 05143010703 · Washington County, AR · pop 3,086 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi

Census tract 05143010703 runs through the Elm-Erstan-Baker neighborhood of Fayetteville. With 3,086 residents, it scores 5.2/10 for landlords. That is riskier than about 47% of US census tracts.

About 55% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 27% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $842 a month against an average household income of $30,842 a year, roughly 33% of income at the averages. Renters make up 96% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

6.6

Elevated

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 52% Stable renters 43% Owners 5%

Tract context

Occupied units1,592

Renter share95.7%

SVI overall0.77

Poverty rate38.3%

Median income$30,842

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Fayetteville and the region

Centroid at 36.0968, -94.1689 · click any tract to drill in

Why Elm-Erstan-Baker scores 6.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Fayetteville

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

4.8

State political climate

Arkansas legislature & governorship

1.5

Economic stress

38.3% poverty · this tract

9.6

Supply constraint

$842 rent vs county FMR

2.6

Rent control risk

Inherited from Fayetteville

1.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

2.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Fayetteville

4.0

Housing court bias

Inherited from Fayetteville

2.5

How Elm-Erstan-Baker compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 77

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

69%Socioeconomic
58%Household composition
66%Racial/ethnic minority
83%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Elm-Erstan-Baker. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

21.5%Housing insecurity
17.1%Utility-shutoff threat
29.7%Food insecurity
21.7%SNAP enrollment
17.3%Transit barriers
15.3%No health insurance
24.7%Frequent mental distress
39.8%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Elm-Erstan-Baker

What moves this score most is economic stress at 9.6/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Fayetteville eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Washington County average of 4.0 and above the Arkansas statewide average of 4.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is racially mixed and ranks around the 77th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

In CDC survey modeling, about 21.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 17.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 05143010703

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 05143010703?

Census tract 05143010703 in the Elm-Erstan-Baker neighborhood scores 6.6/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 05143010703?

Median gross rent is $842/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 05143010703?

38.3% of residents in tract 05143010703 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,086.

How socially vulnerable is tract 05143010703?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 77th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 69th, household 58th, minority 66th, housing 83th.

Is tract 05143010703 considered part of Elm-Erstan-Baker?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 05143010703 fall within Elm-Erstan-Baker (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 05143010703 struggle to pay rent?

About 21.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 17.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 05143010703 compare to Fayetteville overall?

Tract 05143010703 scores 6.6/10, higher than the parent city of Fayetteville at 2.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Fayetteville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Fayetteville

Top eight tracts in Fayetteville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.