Castro Valley Eviction Risk: Moderate

The main counterweight is economic stress at 1.5/10. It sits 1.9 points below the Alameda County average of 7.8.

Running hot, local political climate reads 8.3/10. 19% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

On the high side, regional political climate reads 8.1/10. SNAP participation runs 6.7% against 15.2% nationally. Average gross rent is $2,809, 10% above the Castro Valley average.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.9% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Oakland. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

Nationally it ranks #19,618 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Only 15% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 1.9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.