Merced Eviction Risk: High

Food insecurity runs 41.8% against 17.8% nationally. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 9.4/10.

SNAP participation runs 37.0% against 15.2% nationally. 28% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Annualized rent equals 35% of average household income of $43,406, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

It sits 1.7 points above the Merced County average of 7.1. On the high side, housing-court posture reads 7.8/10. The poverty rate is 24%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.3/10. Average gross rent is $1,268, 9% below the Merced average. That is riskier than roughly 95% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9.6/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.