Merced Eviction Risk: High

SNAP participation runs 54.0% against 15.2% nationally. Housing insecurity runs 38.6% against 14.2% nationally.

Severe burden reaches 31%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. The poverty rate is 42%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 9.4/10.

56% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Merced County average of 43.3%. Average gross rent is $941, 32% below the Merced average.

78% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Against the Merced County average of 7.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.9 points.

Running cool, supply constraint reads 1.2/10. That is riskier than roughly 95% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9.8/10. Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 1.5 points hotter.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.