1 census tracts · pop 7,405 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 8.4/10
· range 8.4–8.4
Rancho Carrillo is a one-tract quarter of San Marcos, CA and houses 7,405 people. Scored across those inputs it reaches 8.4/10, placing it in the High tier. Against a San Marcos baseline of 37.0%, 62% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line.
Severe burden reaches 38%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. Pulling the other way is supply constraint, at 1.1/10.
Running hot is rent-regulation exposure at 8.5/10. At $1,747 a month, rents sit 26% under what the rest of San Marcos commands. Sitting well above the midpoint is tenant-organizing strength at 7.7/10.
The poverty rate is 17%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. That places it #1 of 4 neighborhoods in San Marcos.
Only 22% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin here; price renewals off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. The closest comparables inside the same city are Soltaire and Richland.
Social vulnerability runs high at 7.6/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input. Annual rent works out to 28% of average household income of $74,026.
One tract means one number: 8.4/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.
Risk score
8.4
High
1 tracts · population-weighted
Rancho Carrillo vs San MarcosHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority69%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport80%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Rancho Carrillo
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
11.8%Housing insecurity
6.0%Utility shutoff threat
15.0%Food insecurity
15.0%SNAP enrollment
9.0%No health insurance
33.7%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Rancho Carrillo
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Rancho Carrillo?
Rancho Carrillo scores 8.4/10 (High tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Rancho Carrillo compare to San Marcos overall?
Rancho Carrillo scores 1.4 points higher than San Marcos overall (7/10). Renters spend 62% of income on rent vs 37% citywide. Average rent: $1,747 vs $2,348.
Q3
What is the average rent in Rancho Carrillo?
Average gross rent in Rancho Carrillo is $1,747/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 62% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Rancho Carrillo residents are renters?
22% of Rancho Carrillo households are renter-occupied (vs 36% in San Marcos). The neighborhood has 7,405 residents.
Q5
Is Rancho Carrillo a high social-vulnerability area?
Rancho Carrillo sits in the 73rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
How safe is Rancho Carrillo for landlords?
Rancho Carrillo carries a high-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (8.4/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to San Marcos as a whole (7/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q7
What is the demographic breakdown of Rancho Carrillo?
Rancho Carrillo has 7,296 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (50.7%), Hispanic / Latino (37.2%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (5.4%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
