Gateway Park Eviction Risk: Elevated

Severe burden reaches 30%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. The clearest offset is supply constraint, at 1.4/10.

At $1,373 a month, rents sit 25% under what the rest of Aurora commands. The filing record is not thin: 561 evictions logged in this tract.

The poverty rate is 17%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. The worst year on record was 2006, when filings touched 19.6% of renter households. The most recent observed rate, 8.5% in 2017, is well off that peak.

Among the 21 mapped neighborhoods of Aurora, it ranks #1 by risk, the upper third. The closest comparables inside the same city are Peninsula and Chambers Heights.

Social vulnerability runs high at 9.9/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input. Annual rent works out to 28% of average household income of $58,093. 51% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Because the boundary contains one tract, 6/10 is simultaneously the area figure and the address-level figure. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.