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Neighborhood · Ranked #63,308 of 84,120 nationally

Buffalo Mesa Eviction Risk: Lower , Commerce City

Tract 08001008536 · Adams County, CO · pop 4,679 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi

Census tract 08001008536 covers part of the Buffalo Mesa area of Commerce City, CO, and scores 3.2/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,679 residents. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 8.9/10.

Risk score
3.2
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6% Stable renters 6% Owners 88%
Tract context
Occupied units1,621
Renter share11.6%
SVI overall0.08
Poverty rate12.2%
Median income$141,055

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Buffalo Mesa
Moderate
Within parent city
58 th percentile
Rank, 58th percentileLowHigh
#6 of 13 tracts In Commerce City
Elevated
Within county
17 th percentile
Rank, 17th percentileLowHigh
#89 of 107 tracts In Adams County
Very Low
Within state
16 th percentile
Rank, 16th percentileLowHigh
#1,212 of 1,447 tracts In Colorado
Very Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across Commerce City and the region

Centroid at 39.9042, -104.7948 · click any tract to drill in

Why Buffalo Mesa scores 3.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Commerce City
8.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Colorado legislature & governorship
4.7
Economic stress
12.2% poverty · this tract
3.1
Supply constraint
$2,469 rent vs county FMR
6.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Commerce City
3.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Commerce City
3.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Commerce City
4.7

How Buffalo Mesa compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Buffalo Mesa risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.23.2This tracttract 008536Commerce City: 4.04.0Commerce Cityparent cityCounty: 4.54.5Countyavg tract in countyState: 4.94.9Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 8

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 20Total filings over 3 yrs
  • 7.33%Avg annual filing rate
  • 12.3%Peak (2006)
  • 1Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2017
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 080010085362001: 0 filings (0.00/100 renter HHs)2004: 0 filings (0.00/100 renter HHs)2006: 11 filings (12.31/100 renter HHs)2016: 8 filings (8.60/100 renter HHs)2017: 1 filings (1.08/100 renter HHs)
Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Buffalo Mesa

Average gross rent is $2,469, 31% above the Commerce City average. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.3/10. Against the Adams County average of 4.5, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.3 points.

The voucher gap is 15.4%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 20 filings here across 3 tracked years.

Severe burden reaches 9%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 3.1/10.

Filings peaked in 2006 at 12.3% of renter households. In a typical year about 7.3% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 25th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

Only 12% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. Social vulnerability reads 1.7/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the CO average is 4.9, so this tract runs 1.7 points cooler.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. roughly one in two of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 08001008536

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 08001008536?

Census tract 08001008536 in the Buffalo Mesa neighborhood scores 3.2/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 08001008536?

Median gross rent is $2,469/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 08001008536?

12.2% of residents in tract 08001008536 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,679.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 08001008536?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 8th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 11th, household 26th, minority 61th, housing 5th.
Q5

Is tract 08001008536 considered part of Buffalo Mesa?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 08001008536 fall within Buffalo Mesa (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 08001008536?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 20 eviction filings across 3 validated years in tract 08001008536 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.33% of renter households, peaking at 12.3% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

How does tract 08001008536 compare to Commerce City overall?

Tract 08001008536 scores 3.2/10, lower than the parent city of Commerce City at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Commerce City eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Commerce City

Top eight tracts in Commerce City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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