1 census tracts · pop 4,679 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 3.2/10
· range 3.2–3.2
Buffalo Mesa is a one-tract neighborhood of Commerce City, CO, population 4,679. It carries an Eviction Risk Score of 3.2/10, in the Lower tier. Cost burden runs 50% against 34.1% citywide, putting Buffalo Mesa 15.4% over its own city.
Average gross rent is $2,469, 31% above the Commerce City average of $1,880. The voucher gap is 15.4%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which shows up as churn rather than arrears. The filing record is not thin: 20 evictions logged in this tract.
Severe burden reaches 9%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. The worst year on record was 2006, when filings touched 12.3% of renter households.
The most recent observed rate, 1.1% in 2017, is well off that peak. That places it #1 of 4 neighborhoods in Commerce City. Only 12% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin here; price renewals off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
Annual rent works out to 21% of average household income of $141,055.
One tract means one number: 3.2/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.
Risk score
3.2
Lower
1 tracts · population-weighted
Buffalo Mesa vs Commerce CityHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority61%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport5%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history in Buffalo Mesa
Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
20Total filings (sum)
7.33%Avg annual filing rate
12.3%Peak year (2006)
1.08%Latest filed (2017)
Frequently asked
About Buffalo Mesa
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Buffalo Mesa?
Buffalo Mesa scores 3.2/10 (Lower tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Buffalo Mesa compare to Commerce City overall?
Buffalo Mesa scores 0.8 points lower than Commerce City overall (4/10). Renters spend 50% of income on rent vs 34% citywide. Average rent: $2,469 vs $1,880.
Q3
What is the average rent in Buffalo Mesa?
Average gross rent in Buffalo Mesa is $2,469/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Buffalo Mesa residents are renters?
12% of Buffalo Mesa households are renter-occupied (vs 23% in Commerce City). The neighborhood has 4,679 residents.
Q5
Is Buffalo Mesa a high social-vulnerability area?
Buffalo Mesa sits in the 8th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (low vulnerability). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
How safe is Buffalo Mesa for landlords?
Buffalo Mesa carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (3.2/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Commerce City as a whole (4/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.
Q7
What is the demographic breakdown of Buffalo Mesa?
Buffalo Mesa has 4,924 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (52.8%), Hispanic / Latino (33.5%), Other / Multiracial (6.7%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
