Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #37,882 of 84,120 nationally
Happy Canyon Eviction Risk: Moderate , Castle Rock
Tract 08035014123 · Douglas County, CO · pop 4,256 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
With a score of 4.7/10, tract 08035014123 in the Happy Canyon area of Castle Rock, CO reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,256. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1.2/10.
Risk score
4.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21%
Stable renters 27%
Owners 52%
Tract context
Occupied units1,717
Renter share48.2%
SVI overall0.60
Poverty rate4.9%
Median income$117,958
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
75
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
48
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Castle Rock and the region
Centroid at 39.4245, -104.8817 · click any tract to drill in
Why Happy Canyon scores 4.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Castle Rock
5.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.6
State political climate
Colorado legislature & governorship
4.7
Economic stress
4.9% poverty · this tract
1.2
Supply constraint
$1,844 rent vs county FMR
3.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Castle Rock
8.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Castle Rock
4.9
Housing court bias
Inherited from Castle Rock
5.4
How Happy Canyon compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 60
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 38%Socioeconomic
- 40%Household composition
- 42%Racial/ethnic minority
- 92%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 281Total filings over 2 yrs
- 21.77%Avg annual filing rate
- 29.1%Peak (2010)
- 94Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Happy Canyon
The severe-burden share is 24%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.2/10.
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 7.3/10. Court records carry 281 eviction filings across 2 observed years.
Filings peaked in 2010 at 29.1% of renter households. In a typical year about 21.8% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 55% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Social vulnerability reads 6.4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. Poverty sits at 5%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.
Rent takes 30% or more of income for 44% of renters. It tracks the Douglas County average of 4.3 closely. Average gross rent is $1,844, close to the Castle Rock average.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 08035014123
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 08035014123?
Census tract 08035014123 in the Happy Canyon neighborhood scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 08035014123?
Median gross rent is $1,844/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 08035014123?
4.9% of residents in tract 08035014123 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,256.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 08035014123?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 60th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 38th, household 40th, minority 42th, housing 92th.
Q5
Is tract 08035014123 considered part of Happy Canyon?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 08035014123 fall within Happy Canyon (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 08035014123?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 281 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 08035014123 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 21.77% of renter households, peaking at 29.1% in 2010. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
How does tract 08035014123 compare to Castle Rock overall?
Tract 08035014123 scores 4.7/10, higher than the parent city of Castle Rock at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Castle Rock eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Castle Rock
Top eight tracts in Castle Rock ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · CO
08035014504
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · CO
08035014407
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · CO
08035014503
5.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · CO
Crystal Valley Ranch
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · CO
Silver Heights
4.5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · CO
Castle Oaks
4.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · CO
08035014410
4.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · CO
08035014506
4.1
/ 10 · Moderate
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