Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #31,049 of 84,120 nationally
Castlebar Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bear
Tract 10003014903 · New Castle County, DE · pop 8,288 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
Census tract 10003014903 covers part of the Castlebar area of Bear, DE, and scores 5.1/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 8,288 residents. The severe-burden share is 35%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
5.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 23%
Stable renters 24%
Owners 53%
Tract context
Occupied units2,930
Renter share47.5%
SVI overall0.89
Poverty rate15.5%
Median income$79,844
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
71
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
77
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bear and the region
Centroid at 39.6281, -75.6896 · click any tract to drill in
Why Castlebar scores 5.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bear
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.9
State political climate
Delaware legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
15.5% poverty · this tract
3.9
Supply constraint
$1,631 rent vs county FMR
4.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bear
4.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bear
7.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bear
5.0
How Castlebar compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 89
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 89%Socioeconomic
- 72%Household composition
- 82%Racial/ethnic minority
- 80%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 2,452Total filings over 9 yrs
- 40.14%Avg annual filing rate
- 53.9%Peak (2015)
- 251Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 24% over the past 9 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 866Total filings 2020-21
- 11.3Avg monthly (observed)
- 21.6Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.52×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Tampa, FL as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Castlebar. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 22.7%Housing insecurity
- 14.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 28.5%Food insecurity
- 25.8%SNAP enrollment
- 14.4%Transit barriers
- 16.5%No health insurance
- 18.6%Frequent mental distress
- 35.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Castlebar
The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.4/10. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.5/10. SNAP participation runs 25.8% against 15.2% nationally.
Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.2/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 2,452 filings here across 9 tracked years.
Against the New Castle County average of 4.2, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.9 points. Cost burden runs 49% here against 44.1% across New Castle County. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 14.7% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.
Filings peaked in 2015 at 53.9% of renter households. In a typical year about 40.1% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 63rd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Social vulnerability reads 9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the DE average is 4.1, so this tract runs 1.0 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.
Average gross rent is $1,631, close to the Bear average. Annual rent works out to 25% of average household income of $79,844.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 10003014903
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 10003014903?
Census tract 10003014903 in the Castlebar neighborhood scores 5.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 10003014903?
Median gross rent is $1,631/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 10003014903?
15.5% of residents in tract 10003014903 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 8,288.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 10003014903?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 89th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 89th, household 72th, minority 82th, housing 80th.
Q5
Is tract 10003014903 considered part of Castlebar?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 10003014903 fall within Castlebar (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 10003014903?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2,452 eviction filings across 9 validated years in tract 10003014903 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 40.14% of renter households, peaking at 53.9% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 10003014903 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.52× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tampa, FL), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 10003014903 struggle to pay rent?
About 22.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 14.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 10003014903 compare to Bear overall?
Tract 10003014903 scores 5.1/10, higher than the parent city of Bear at 4.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bear eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Bear
Top eight tracts in Bear ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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