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Census Tract · Ranked #45,786 of 84,120 nationally

Lower Grand Lagoon Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 12005002607 · Bay, FL · pop 1,233 · 92% of tract blocks fall in Lower Grand Lagoon

12005002607 is a census tract in Lower Grand Lagoon, FL. It scores 4.2/10 for landlords. 29% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well under the Bay County average of 54.8%.

Risk score
4.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9% Stable renters 23% Owners 68%
Tract context
Occupied units640
Renter share32.2%
SVI overall0.49
Poverty rate13.5%
Median income$52,396

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 3 tracts In Lower Grand Lagoon
Very High
Within county
71 th percentile
Rank, 71st percentileLowHigh
#15 of 49 tracts In Bay
Elevated
Within state
60 th percentile
Rank, 60th percentileLowHigh
#2,028 of 5,122 tracts In Florida
Elevated
National
46 th percentile
Rank, 46th percentileLowHigh
#45,786 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Lower Grand Lagoon and the region

Centroid at 30.1051, -85.7007 · click any tract to drill in

Why Lower Grand Lagoon scores 4.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Lower Grand Lagoon
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
2.8
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
13.5% poverty · this tract
3.4
Supply constraint
$1,180 rent vs county FMR
2.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lower Grand Lagoon
4.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lower Grand Lagoon
6.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lower Grand Lagoon
5.4

How Lower Grand Lagoon compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Lower Grand Lagoon risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.2This tracttract 0026073.6Lower Grand Lagoonparent city3.8Countyavg tract in county4.1Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 49

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 197Total filings over 10 yrs
  • 6.70%Avg annual filing rate
  • 15.1%Peak (2011)
  • 9Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2008 to 2018
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 12005002607
Filings dropped 50% over the past 10 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Lower Grand Lagoon

The main counterweight is state political climate at 1.5/10. Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 1.8/10.

18% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 2.3/10.

Court records carry 197 eviction filings across 10 observed years. At $1,180 a month, rents run 11% under what the rest of Lower Grand Lagoon commands. Filings peaked in 2011 at 15.1% of renter households.

In a typical year about 6.7% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #45,786 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 5.4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

It tracks the Bay County average of 3.8 closely. Annual rent works out to 27% of average household income of $52,396.

32% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 12005002607

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12005002607?

Census tract 12005002607 in Lower Grand Lagoon scores 4.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 12005002607?

Median gross rent is $1,180/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 29% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 12005002607?

13.5% of residents in tract 12005002607 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,233.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 12005002607?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 49th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 45th, household 49th, minority 32th, housing 58th.
Q5

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12005002607?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 197 eviction filings across 10 validated years in tract 12005002607 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.70% of renter households, peaking at 15.1% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6

How does tract 12005002607 compare to Lower Grand Lagoon overall?

Tract 12005002607 scores 4.2/10, higher than the parent city of Lower Grand Lagoon at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lower Grand Lagoon; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Lower Grand Lagoon

Top eight tracts in Lower Grand Lagoon ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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