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Census Tract · Ranked #48,083 of 84,120 nationally

Lower Grand Lagoon Eviction Risk: Lower

Tract 12005002605 · Bay, FL · pop 1,881 · 87% of tract blocks fall in Lower Grand Lagoon

Census tract 12005002605 covers Lower Grand Lagoon in Bay County, home to 1,881 residents. For landlords it grades 5.2/10, a moderate reading. That is riskier than about 47% of US census tracts.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 62% of renter households, a severe level, and 42% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,268 monthly, set against $78,333 in average yearly household income, roughly 19% of income at the averages. Renters make up 29% of occupied homes.

Risk score
3.6
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 18% Stable renters 11% Owners 71%
Tract context
Occupied units864
Renter share28.8%
SVI overall0.72
Poverty rate15.8%
Median income$78,333

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 3 tracts In Lower Grand Lagoon
Moderate
Within county
67 th percentile
Rank, 67th percentileLowHigh
#17 of 49 tracts In Bay
Elevated
Within state
57 th percentile
Rank, 57th percentileLowHigh
#2,206 of 5,122 tracts In Florida
Elevated
National
43 th percentile
Rank, 43rd percentileLowHigh
#48,083 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Lower Grand Lagoon and the region

Centroid at 30.1613, -85.7806 · click any tract to drill in

Why Lower Grand Lagoon scores 3.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Lower Grand Lagoon
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
2.8
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
15.8% poverty · this tract
3.9
Supply constraint
$1,268 rent vs county FMR
2.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lower Grand Lagoon
4.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lower Grand Lagoon
6.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lower Grand Lagoon
5.4

How Lower Grand Lagoon compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Lower Grand Lagoon risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.63.6This tracttract 002605Lower Grand Lagoon: 2.32.3Lower Grand Lagoonparent cityCounty: 3.33.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.53.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 72

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 182Total filings over 10 yrs
  • 6.26%Avg annual filing rate
  • 9.5%Peak (2018)
  • 28Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2008 to 2018
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 120050026052008: 24 filings (4.34/100 renter HHs)2010: 11 filings (3.53/100 renter HHs)2011: 20 filings (7.91/100 renter HHs)2012: 13 filings (5.14/100 renter HHs)2013: 21 filings (8.30/100 renter HHs)2014: 20 filings (7.91/100 renter HHs)2015: 13 filings (5.14/100 renter HHs)2016: 14 filings (4.75/100 renter HHs)2017: 18 filings (6.10/100 renter HHs)2018: 28 filings (9.49/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 17% over the past 10 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Lower Grand Lagoon

The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 6.8/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Lower Grand Lagoon, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Bay County average of 5.0 and in line with the Florida statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 72nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 182 eviction filings here over 10 tracked years, with about 6.3% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 9.5% of renter households in 2018.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 12005002605

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12005002605?

Census tract 12005002605 in Lower Grand Lagoon scores 3.6/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 12005002605?

Median gross rent is $1,268/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 62% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 12005002605?

15.8% of residents in tract 12005002605 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,881.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 12005002605?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 72th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 83th, household 71th, minority 31th, housing 51th.
Q5

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12005002605?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 182 eviction filings across 10 validated years in tract 12005002605 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.26% of renter households, peaking at 9.5% in 2018. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6

How does tract 12005002605 compare to Lower Grand Lagoon overall?

Tract 12005002605 scores 3.6/10, higher than the parent city of Lower Grand Lagoon at 2.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lower Grand Lagoon; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Lower Grand Lagoon

Top eight tracts in Lower Grand Lagoon ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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