Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally

Osprey Cove Eviction Risk: Lower , San Carlos Park

Tract 12071050207 · Lee, FL · pop 2,684 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

12071050207 is a census tract in the Osprey Cove area of Estero, FL. It scores 3/10 for landlords. It is home to 2,684 residents. The severe-burden share is 30%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score

Lower

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 7% Stable renters 6% Owners 87%

Tract context

Occupied units1,426

Renter share13.3%

SVI overall0.08

Poverty rate8.5%

Median income$92,639

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across San Carlos Park and the region

Centroid at 26.4562, -81.8089 · click any tract to drill in

Why Osprey Cove scores 3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from San Carlos Park

4.6

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

4.0

State political climate

Florida legislature & governorship

1.5

Economic stress

8.5% poverty · this tract

2.1

Supply constraint

$1,647 rent vs county FMR

3.9

Rent control risk

Inherited from San Carlos Park

6.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

1.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from San Carlos Park

3.9

Housing court bias

Inherited from San Carlos Park

4.9

How Osprey Cove compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 8

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

30%Socioeconomic
4%Household composition
24%Racial/ethnic minority
11%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Osprey Cove. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Osprey Cove

Pulling hardest the other way is state political climate at 1.5/10. Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 1.5/10.

Running cool, economic stress reads 2.1/10. Average gross rent is $1,647, 14% below the Estero average.

Against the Lee County average of 3.7, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.7 points. That is riskier than roughly 20% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

At 13% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 1.7/10.

Statewide the FL average is 4.1, so this tract runs 1.1 points cooler. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

Rent takes 30% or more of income for 56% of renters. Annual rent works out to 21% of average household income of $92,639.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 12071050207

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12071050207?

Census tract 12071050207 in the Osprey Cove neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 12071050207?

Median gross rent is $1,647/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 56% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 12071050207?

8.5% of residents in tract 12071050207 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,684.

How socially vulnerable is tract 12071050207?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 8th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 30th, household 4th, minority 24th, housing 11th.

Is tract 12071050207 considered part of Osprey Cove?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12071050207 fall within Osprey Cove (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).

How does tract 12071050207 compare to San Carlos Park overall?

Tract 12071050207 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of San Carlos Park at 3.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from San Carlos Park; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in San Carlos Park

Top eight tracts in San Carlos Park ranked by composite eviction-risk score.