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Neighborhood · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally

Casa Loma Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bayshore Gardens

Tract 12081000204 · Manatee, FL · pop 2,268 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

Census tract 12081000204 covers part of the Casa Loma area of Manatee County, FL, and scores 5.2/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,268. Severe burden reaches 42%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 80% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 8% Stable renters 3% Owners 89%
Tract context
Occupied units1,383
Renter share10.8%
SVI overall0.32
Poverty rate14.0%
Median income$33,412

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
43 th percentile
Rank, 43rd percentileLowHigh
#5 of 8 tracts In Casa Loma
Moderate
Within county
75 th percentile
Rank, 75th percentileLowHigh
#24 of 93 tracts In Manatee
High
Within state
83 th percentile
Rank, 83rd percentileLowHigh
#879 of 5,122 tracts In Florida
High
National
65 th percentile
Rank, 65th percentileLowHigh
#29,336 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Bayshore Gardens and the region

Centroid at 27.4549, -82.5590 · click any tract to drill in

Why Casa Loma scores 5.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
1.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.2
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
14.0% poverty · this tract
3.5
Supply constraint
$1,416 rent vs county FMR
2.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
5.0

How Casa Loma compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Casa Loma risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.2This tracttract 0002044.1Bayshore Gardensparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.1Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 32

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Casa Loma. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Casa Loma

70% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Manatee County average of 53.5%. Annualized rent equals 51% of average household income of $33,412, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

The clearest offset is state political climate at 1.5/10. Disability prevalence runs 48.8% against 31.5% nationally.

On the softer side, local political climate reads 1.5/10. Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10.

It sits 1.1 points above the Manatee County average of 4.1. Nationally it ranks #29,336 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Only 11% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 3.8/10.

Statewide the FL average is 4.1, so this tract runs 1.1 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Average gross rent runs $1,416 a month.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 12081000204

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12081000204?

Census tract 12081000204 in the Casa Loma neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 12081000204?

Median gross rent is $1,416/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 70% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 12081000204?

14.0% of residents in tract 12081000204 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,268.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 12081000204?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 32th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 71th, household 17th, minority 8th, housing 16th.
Q5

Is tract 12081000204 considered part of Casa Loma?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12081000204 fall within Casa Loma (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How does tract 12081000204 compare to Bayshore Gardens overall?

Tract 12081000204 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Bayshore Gardens at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bayshore Gardens; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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