Within neighborhood
43
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #39,389 of 84,120 nationally
Casa Loma Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bayshore Gardens
Tract 12081000204 · Manatee, FL · pop 2,268 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
The Moderate-tier score of 4.7/10 for census tract 12081000204 reflects conditions in the Casa Loma neighborhood of Bayshore Gardens, Florida. It lands near the 30th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
70% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 42% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,416 a month against an average household income of $33,412 a year, roughly 51% of income at the averages. About 11% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
4.1
Moderate
Confidence 80% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 8%
Stable renters 3%
Owners 89%
Tract context
Occupied units1,383
Renter share10.8%
SVI overall0.32
Poverty rate14.0%
Median income$33,412
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
79
th percentile
High
Within state
70
th percentile
Elevated
National
53
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bayshore Gardens and the region
Centroid at 27.4549, -82.5590 · click any tract to drill in
Why Casa Loma scores 4.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
1.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.2
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
14.0% poverty · this tract
3.5
Supply constraint
$1,416 rent vs county FMR
2.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
5.0
How Casa Loma compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 32
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 71%Socioeconomic
- 17%Household composition
- 8%Racial/ethnic minority
- 16%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Casa Loma. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Casa Loma
The score leans hardest on eviction process difficulty at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Bayshore Gardens, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Manatee County average of 5.0 and in line with the Florida statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 32nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 12081000204
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12081000204?
Census tract 12081000204 in the Casa Loma neighborhood scores 4.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12081000204?
Median gross rent is $1,416/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 70% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12081000204?
14.0% of residents in tract 12081000204 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,268.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12081000204?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 32th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 71th, household 17th, minority 8th, housing 16th.
Q5
Is tract 12081000204 considered part of Casa Loma?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12081000204 fall within Casa Loma (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How does tract 12081000204 compare to Bayshore Gardens overall?
Tract 12081000204 scores 4.1/10, higher than the parent city of Bayshore Gardens at 2.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bayshore Gardens; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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