Forest Ridge Eviction Risk: Moderate

The severe-burden share is 27%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay. Annualized rent equals 32% of average household income here, past the 30% affordability line, which compresses the margin any screening standard has to work with.

On the high side is housing-court posture at 8.4/10. 53% of renters here are cost-burdened at the 30% threshold, higher than the Holiday rate of 45.5%.

On the softer side is eviction-process difficulty, at 1.7/10. Scores across the 4 constituent tracts range from 4.3 to 5.4. A 1.1-point internal spread means block-level underwriting beats area-level here. The poverty rate is 19%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest.

Filings are well documented here: 1,028 across 4 observed tracts. The worst year on record was 2011, when filings touched 27.9% of renter households.

The most recent observed rate, 6.5% in 2012, is well off that peak. Social vulnerability runs high at 7.8/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

Average gross rent runs $1,307, close to the Holiday average. 34% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Underwrite the address, not the area: with 1.1 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.