Altgeld Gardens Eviction Risk: High

41.3% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, against a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. At $584 a month, rents sit 59% under what the rest of Chicago commands. The dominant input is economic stress at 10/10.

The poverty rate is 57%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. 93% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building two streets over.

Against a Chicago baseline of 29.3%, 42% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line. Set annual rent against average household income of $16,176 and the ratio lands at 43%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. On the softer side is supply constraint, at 1/10.

22% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. Running hot is tenant-organizing strength at 8/10.

Court records for this tract carry 2,343 eviction filings. The worst year on record was 2004, when filings touched 22.5% of renter households. The most recent observed rate, 10.8% in 2015, is well off that peak.

One tract means one number: 8.1/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.