Edgewater Beach Eviction Risk: High

72% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building two streets over. Severe burden reaches 22%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears.

The main counterweight is supply constraint, at 1.9/10. Running hot is tenant-organizing strength at 8/10.

The poverty rate is 20%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. At $1,205 a month, rents sit 16% under what the rest of Chicago commands. Filings are well documented here: 5,554 across 6 observed tracts.

On the high side is eviction-process difficulty at 7.5/10. Filing activity peaked in 2013 at 11.5% of renter households.

The most recent observed rate, 4.0% in 2015, is well off that peak. Among the 187 mapped neighborhoods of Chicago, it ranks #38 by risk, the upper third.

Social vulnerability runs high at 7.9/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input. The 6 tracts here are tightly clustered, 0.7 points apart at the extremes. Annual rent works out to 27% of average household income of $53,178.

With little internal variation, 8/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.