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Neighborhood · Ranked #20,889 of 84,120 nationally

River Bend Eviction Risk: Moderate , Des Moines

Tract 19153004900 · Polk County, IA · pop 1,686 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

For landlords sizing up the River Bend area of Des Moines, census tract 19153004900 carries a moderate eviction-risk score of 5.4/10. It lands near the 53rd percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

About 66% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 55% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $745 a month while the average household earns $38,464 a year, roughly 23% of income at the averages. Renters make up 64% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
5.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 42% Stable renters 21% Owners 37%
Tract context
Occupied units695
Renter share63.6%
SVI overall0.99
Poverty rate27.3%
Median income$38,464

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In River Bend
Moderate
Within parent city
86 th percentile
Rank, 86th percentileLowHigh
#9 of 60 tracts In Des Moines
High
Within county
93 th percentile
Rank, 93rd percentileLowHigh
#9 of 112 tracts In Polk County
Very High
Within state
96 th percentile
Rank, 96th percentileLowHigh
#40 of 896 tracts In Iowa
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Des Moines and the region

Centroid at 41.6046, -93.6185 · click any tract to drill in

Why River Bend scores 5.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Des Moines
4.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Iowa legislature & governorship
2.3
Economic stress
27.3% poverty · this tract
6.8
Supply constraint
$745 rent vs county FMR
1.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Des Moines
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Des Moines
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Des Moines
2.5

How River Bend compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
River Bend risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.35.3This tracttract 004900Des Moines: 2.62.6Des Moinesparent cityCounty: 3.23.2Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.33.3Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 99

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 410Total filings over 10 yrs
  • 5.97%Avg annual filing rate
  • 8.9%Peak (2012)
  • 35Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2006 to 2015
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 191530049002006: 42 filings (7.20/100 renter HHs)2007: 30 filings (5.15/100 renter HHs)2008: 33 filings (5.66/100 renter HHs)2009: 38 filings (6.52/100 renter HHs)2010: 33 filings (4.99/100 renter HHs)2011: 47 filings (6.07/100 renter HHs)2012: 69 filings (8.91/100 renter HHs)2013: 39 filings (5.04/100 renter HHs)2014: 44 filings (5.68/100 renter HHs)2015: 35 filings (4.52/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 17% over the past 10 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in River Bend

The score leans hardest on economic stress at 6.8/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Des Moines eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Polk County average of 5.0 and above the Iowa statewide average of 4.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

This tract overlaps land the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation redlined in the 1930s, a dominant grade of D ("Hazardous") across 71% of the tract. Redlining cut off mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class blocks, and those areas still tend to carry higher rent burden and eviction filings today.

The tract is Black and White and ranks around the 99th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 19153004900

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 19153004900?

Census tract 19153004900 in the River Bend neighborhood scores 5.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 19153004900?

Median gross rent is $745/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 66% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 19153004900?

27.3% of residents in tract 19153004900 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,686.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 19153004900?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 99th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 98th, household 92th, minority 76th, housing 99th.
Q5

Is tract 19153004900 considered part of River Bend?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 19153004900 fall within River Bend (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 19153004900?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 410 eviction filings across 10 validated years in tract 19153004900 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.97% of renter households, peaking at 8.9% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 19153004900 struggle to pay rent?

About 30.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 23.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 19153004900 compare to Des Moines overall?

Tract 19153004900 scores 5.3/10, higher than the parent city of Des Moines at 2.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Des Moines eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9

Was tract 19153004900 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 71% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Des Moines

Top eight tracts in Des Moines ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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