Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #35,669 of 84,120 nationally
Watrous South Eviction Risk: Moderate , Des Moines
Tract 19153004701 · Polk County, IA · pop 4,142 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi
Census tract 19153004701 covers part of the Watrous South area of Des Moines, IA, and scores 4.8/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,142. 38% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
4.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21%
Stable renters 11%
Owners 68%
Tract context
Occupied units1,882
Renter share31.6%
SVI overall0.73
Poverty rate20.0%
Median income$54,600
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
83
th percentile
High
Within county
86
th percentile
High
Within state
90
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Des Moines and the region
Centroid at 41.5190, -93.6492 · click any tract to drill in
Why Watrous South scores 4.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Des Moines
4.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Iowa legislature & governorship
2.3
Economic stress
20.0% poverty · this tract
5.0
Supply constraint
$1,142 rent vs county FMR
4.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Des Moines
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Des Moines
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Des Moines
2.5
How Watrous South compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 73
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 63%Socioeconomic
- 88%Household composition
- 41%Racial/ethnic minority
- 68%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 795Total filings over 10 yrs
- 14.14%Avg annual filing rate
- 17.0%Peak (2008)
- 69Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 42% over the past 10 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Watrous South. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 17.3%Housing insecurity
- 11.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 23.2%Food insecurity
- 21.2%SNAP enrollment
- 11.6%Transit barriers
- 13.1%No health insurance
- 20.8%Frequent mental distress
- 34.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Watrous South
Cost burden runs 65% here against 42.0% across Polk County. The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.
Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.2/10. On the softer side, state political climate reads 2.3/10.
The poverty rate is 20%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. It sits 1.0 points above the Polk County average of 3.8.
The filing record is not thin: 795 evictions over 10 years of observation. Filings peaked in 2008 at 17.0% of renter households. In a typical year about 14.1% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 58% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 7.6/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Statewide the IA average is 3.7, so this tract runs 1.1 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 19153004701
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 19153004701?
Census tract 19153004701 in the Watrous South neighborhood scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 19153004701?
Median gross rent is $1,142/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 19153004701?
20.0% of residents in tract 19153004701 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,142.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 19153004701?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 73th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 63th, household 88th, minority 41th, housing 68th.
Q5
Is tract 19153004701 considered part of Watrous South?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 19153004701 fall within Watrous South (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 19153004701?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 795 eviction filings across 10 validated years in tract 19153004701 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 14.14% of renter households, peaking at 17.0% in 2008. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 19153004701 struggle to pay rent?
About 17.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 19153004701 compare to Des Moines overall?
Tract 19153004701 scores 4.8/10, higher than the parent city of Des Moines at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Des Moines eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Des Moines
Top eight tracts in Des Moines ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · IA
King Irving
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
Western Gateway
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
Pioneer Park
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
Kirkwood Glen
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
Capitol East
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
Mondamin Presidential
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
Garton West
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
Union Park
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Related