Neighborhood · Ranked #10,020 of 84,120 nationally

Howardsville Eviction Risk: Elevated , Lochearn

Tract 24005403201 · Baltimore County, MD · pop 3,470 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

Census tract 24005403201 covers the Howardsville area of Lochearn, home to 3,470 residents. For landlords it grades 7.3/10, an elevated reading. That is riskier than roughly 98% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

70% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 51% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $2,513 a month against an average household income of $91,816 a year, roughly 33% of income at the averages. About 6% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score

7.7

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 4% Stable renters 2% Owners 94%

Tract context

Occupied units1,261

Renter share6.0%

SVI overall0.65

Poverty rate4.6%

Median income$91,816

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Lochearn and the region

Centroid at 39.3549, -76.7215 · click any tract to drill in

Why Howardsville scores 7.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Lochearn

8.9

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Maryland legislature & governorship

5.7

Economic stress

4.6% poverty · this tract

1.1

Supply constraint

$2,513 rent vs county FMR

7.8

Rent control risk

Inherited from Lochearn

8.1

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Lochearn

6.8

Housing court bias

Inherited from Lochearn

6.5

How Howardsville compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 65

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

39%Socioeconomic
74%Household composition
90%Racial/ethnic minority
67%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
1%Grade B
0%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Howardsville. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

20.3%Housing insecurity
12.9%Utility-shutoff threat
23.8%Food insecurity
19.8%SNAP enrollment
11.4%Transit barriers
9.1%No health insurance
16.1%Frequent mental distress
30.3%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Howardsville

The score leans hardest on rent-control risk at 8.1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Lochearn eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Baltimore County average of 6.7 and above the Maryland statewide average of 6.6. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 20.3% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 12.9% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of B ("Still Desirable"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 24005403201

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 24005403201?

Census tract 24005403201 in the Howardsville neighborhood scores 7.7/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 24005403201?

Median gross rent is $2,513/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 70% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 24005403201?

4.6% of residents in tract 24005403201 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,470.

How socially vulnerable is tract 24005403201?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 65th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 39th, household 74th, minority 90th, housing 67th.

Is tract 24005403201 considered part of Howardsville?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 24005403201 fall within Howardsville (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 24005403201 struggle to pay rent?

About 20.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 24005403201 compare to Lochearn overall?

Tract 24005403201 scores 7.7/10, lower than the parent city of Lochearn at 8.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lochearn eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 24005403201 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Lochearn

Top eight tracts in Lochearn ranked by composite eviction-risk score.