Green Tree Manor Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bethesda

30% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well below the Montgomery County average of 46.7%. The voucher gap is 51.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. At $3,501 a month, rents run 42% over what the rest of Bethesda commands.

On the high side, court filing pressure reads 9.8/10. The severe-burden share is 26%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1.5/10.

Disability prevalence runs 17.2% against 31.5% nationally. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 2.8% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

On the national scale it lands near the 74th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Only 12% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 1.5/10.

Rent consumes only 17% of average household income of $250,001, an unusually wide affordability cushion.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.