The Flats Eviction Risk: Elevated

CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 33.2% of adults, against 14.2% nationally. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 9/10.

Scores across the 3 constituent tracts range from 5.7 to 8. A 2.3-point internal spread means block-level underwriting beats area-level here. 67% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building two streets over. The poverty rate is 26%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest.

Well under the midpoint is supply constraint, at 2.1/10. The severe-burden share is 16%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay.

Disability prevalence reaches 45.3% against a 31.5% national average, which raises the odds a reasonable-accommodation request accompanies any dispute. On the high side is housing-court posture at 7/10. For a like-for-like read, Oakdale and Holyoke Center score within a fraction of it.

Average gross rent runs $981, close to the Holyoke average. Annual rent works out to 22% of average household income of $54,014.

Underwrite the address, not the area: with 2.3 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.