Neighborhood · Ranked #41,480 of 84,120 nationally

Oak Square Eviction Risk: Moderate , Newton

Tract 25017373100 · Middlesex County, MA · pop 5,153 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

With a score of 4.9/10, tract 25017373100 in the Oak Square area of Newton ranks in the Moderate tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 5,153 residents. That is riskier than roughly 35% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

39% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a high level, and 13% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,509 monthly, set against $159,441 in average yearly household income, roughly 19% of income at the averages. Renters make up 47% of occupied homes.

Risk score

4.7

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 18% Stable renters 29% Owners 53%

Tract context

Occupied units1,939

Renter share46.7%

SVI overall0.22

Poverty rate5.6%

Median income$159,441

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Newton and the region

Centroid at 42.3557, -71.1844 · click any tract to drill in

Why Oak Square scores 4.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Newton

7.1

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

7.3

State political climate

Massachusetts legislature & governorship

6.2

Economic stress

5.6% poverty · this tract

1.4

Supply constraint

$2,509 rent vs county FMR

3.8

Rent control risk

Inherited from Newton

4.8

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

5.9

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Newton

6.3

Housing court bias

Inherited from Newton

3.9

How Oak Square compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 22

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

17%Socioeconomic
18%Household composition
50%Racial/ethnic minority
40%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
34%Grade B
56%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

30Total filings over 5 yrs
0.66%Avg annual filing rate
1.1%Peak (2012)
1Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

Filings by year 2012 to 2016

Filings dropped 90% over the past 5 months.

Pandemic-era tracking (2020-2021)

0Total filings 2020-21
0.0Avg monthly (observed)
0.6Pre-pandemic baseline
0.00×Ratio to baseline

Monthly filings 2020-2021 2020-01-01 to 2023-11-01

Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Boston, MA as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Oak Square. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

6.9%Housing insecurity
4.1%Utility-shutoff threat
6.8%Food insecurity
6.9%SNAP enrollment
5.1%Transit barriers
3.1%No health insurance
13.6%Frequent mental distress
20.7%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Oak Square

The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 6.3/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Newton eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Middlesex County average of 5.2 and below the Massachusetts statewide average of 5.9. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 22nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

In CDC survey modeling, about 6.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 4.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 25017373100

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 25017373100?

Census tract 25017373100 in the Oak Square neighborhood scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 25017373100?

Median gross rent is $2,509/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 39% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 25017373100?

5.6% of residents in tract 25017373100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,153.

How socially vulnerable is tract 25017373100?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 22th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 17th, household 18th, minority 50th, housing 40th.

Is tract 25017373100 considered part of Oak Square?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 25017373100 fall within Oak Square (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 25017373100?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 30 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 25017373100 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 0.66% of renter households, peaking at 1.1% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

Did eviction filings in tract 25017373100 drop during COVID?

Pandemic-era filings ran 0.00× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Boston eviction risk, MA), 2020-2021.

What share of households in tract 25017373100 struggle to pay rent?

About 6.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 25017373100 compare to Newton overall?

Tract 25017373100 scores 4.7/10, higher than the parent city of Newton at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Newton eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Q10

Was tract 25017373100 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Newton

Top eight tracts in Newton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.