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Neighborhood · Ranked #19,618 of 84,120 nationally

Oak Square Eviction Risk: Moderate , Newton

Tract 25017370402 · Middlesex County, MA · pop 1,575 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

25017370402 is a census tract in the Oak Square area of Middlesex County, MA. It scores 5.9/10 for landlords. Against Middlesex County at 43.0%, 27% of renters here are cost-burdened.

Risk score
5.9
Moderate
Confidence 80% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 16% Stable renters 42% Owners 42%
Tract context
Occupied units685
Renter share57.7%
SVI overall0.29
Poverty rate12.7%
Median income$137,104

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 3 tracts In Oak Square
Very High
Within parent city
67 th percentile
Rank, 67th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 10 tracts In Newton
Elevated
Within county
49 th percentile
Rank, 49th percentileLowHigh
#182 of 357 tracts In Middlesex County
Moderate
Within state
48 th percentile
Rank, 48th percentileLowHigh
#837 of 1,613 tracts In Massachusetts
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Newton and the region

Centroid at 42.3627, -71.1764 · click any tract to drill in

Why Oak Square scores 5.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Newton
6.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Massachusetts legislature & governorship
6.2
Economic stress
12.7% poverty · this tract
3.2
Supply constraint
$2,373 rent vs county FMR
3.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Newton
6.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Newton
4.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Newton
5.0

How Oak Square compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Oak Square risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.9This tracttract 3704025.9Newtonparent city6.3Countyavg tract in county6.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 29

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)

  • 0Total filings 2020-21
  • 0.0Avg monthly (observed)
  • 0.0Pre-pandemic baseline
  • 0.00×Ratio to baseline
Monthly filings 2020–2021 2020-01-01 to 2023-11-01
Monthly eviction filings vs pre-pandemic baseline

Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Boston, MA as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Oak Square. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Oak Square

19% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Pulling hardest the other way is court filing pressure at 2.5/10.

Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 7.3/10. Food insecurity runs 9.3% against 17.8% nationally.

Adults with no health insurance runs 3.8% against 11.3% nationally. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

Nationally it ranks #19,618 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 3.7/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. It tracks the Middlesex County average of 6.3 closely. Average gross rent runs $2,373 a month.

Annual rent works out to 21% of average household income of $137,104. 58% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 25017370402

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 25017370402?

Census tract 25017370402 in the Oak Square neighborhood scores 5.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 25017370402?

Median gross rent is $2,373/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 27% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 25017370402?

12.7% of residents in tract 25017370402 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,575.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 25017370402?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 29th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 14th, household 9th, minority 64th, housing 77th.
Q5

Is tract 25017370402 considered part of Oak Square?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 25017370402 fall within Oak Square (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 25017370402 struggle to pay rent?

About 9.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 25017370402 compare to Newton overall?

Tract 25017370402 scores 5.9/10, right in line with the parent city of Newton at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Newton eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 25017370402 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Newton

Top eight tracts in Newton ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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