Ashmont Eviction Risk: High , Boston

Cost burden runs 63% here against 47.0% across Suffolk County. Annualized rent equals 45% of average household income of $46,379, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

The main counterweight is supply constraint at 1.2/10. Housing insecurity runs 31.1% against 14.2% nationally.

72% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. On the high side, local political climate reads 8.5/10. Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.5/10.

Against the Suffolk County average of 7.9, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.6 points. The poverty rate is 27%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 22.4% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. At $1,755 a month, rents run 18% under what the rest of Boston commands. The filing record is not thin: 489 evictions over 5 years of observation.

The worst year on record was 2016, when 9.2% of renter households were served. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.