Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #5,153 of 84,120 nationally
Cary Square Eviction Risk: High , Chelsea
Tract 25025160501 · Suffolk County, MA · pop 6,283 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
25025160501 is a census tract in the Cary Square area of Chelsea, MA. It scores 8.6/10 for landlords. Population here is 6,283. Severe burden reaches 45%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
8.6
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 43%
Stable renters 23%
Owners 34%
Tract context
Occupied units1,971
Renter share66.4%
SVI overall0.85
Poverty rate16.0%
Median income$59,625
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
38
th percentile
Low
Within county
63
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
92
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Chelsea and the region
Centroid at 42.3983, -71.0329 · click any tract to drill in
Why Cary Square scores 8.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Chelsea
8.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.2
State political climate
Massachusetts legislature & governorship
6.2
Economic stress
16.0% poverty · this tract
4.0
Supply constraint
$1,724 rent vs county FMR
1.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Chelsea
7.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Chelsea
9.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Chelsea
7.9
How Cary Square compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 85
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 81%Socioeconomic
- 81%Household composition
- 88%Racial/ethnic minority
- 71%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 96%Grade C
- 4%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 241Total filings over 5 yrs
- 3.69%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.1%Peak (2016)
- 54Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 32% over the past 5 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 149Total filings 2020-21
- 3.2Avg monthly (observed)
- 3.9Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.82×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Boston, MA as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Cary Square. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 26.6%Housing insecurity
- 14.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 30.5%Food insecurity
- 29.7%SNAP enrollment
- 15.6%Transit barriers
- 17.9%No health insurance
- 18.1%Frequent mental distress
- 32.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Cary Square
Cost burden runs 65% here against 47.0% across Suffolk County. The score leans hardest on tenant-organizing strength at 9.8/10.
Running cool, supply constraint reads 1.1/10. Annualized rent equals 35% of average household income of $59,625, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.
66% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. SNAP participation runs 29.7% against 15.2% nationally.
Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.3/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 241 filings here across 5 tracked years. Against the Suffolk County average of 7.9, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.7 points.
Average gross rent is $1,724, 12% below the Chelsea average. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 14.3% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.
Filings peaked in 2016 at 4.1% of renter households. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Chelsea. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 3.7% of renter households face a filing.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 25025160501
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 25025160501?
Census tract 25025160501 in the Cary Square neighborhood scores 8.6/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 25025160501?
Median gross rent is $1,724/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 25025160501?
16.0% of residents in tract 25025160501 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,283.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 25025160501?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 85th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 81th, household 81th, minority 88th, housing 71th.
Q5
Is tract 25025160501 considered part of Cary Square?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 25025160501 fall within Cary Square (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 25025160501?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 241 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 25025160501 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.69% of renter households, peaking at 4.1% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 25025160501 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.82× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Boston eviction risk, MA), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 25025160501 struggle to pay rent?
About 26.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 14.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 25025160501 compare to Chelsea overall?
Tract 25025160501 scores 8.6/10, higher than the parent city of Chelsea at 7.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chelsea eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q10
Was tract 25025160501 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 4% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Chelsea
Top eight tracts in Chelsea ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · MA
Bellingham Hill
9.2
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · MA
Park Square
9.2
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · MA
Mill Hill
9.2
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · MA
Bellingham Square Historic District
8.8
/ 10 · High
Tract · MA
Chelsea Square
8.8
/ 10 · High
Tract · MA
Prattville
8.2
/ 10 · High
Tract · MA
Admirals Hill
7.9
/ 10 · High
Tract · MA
Cary Square
6.5
/ 10 · Elevated
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