Flint Eviction Risk: Moderate

The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.7/10. 29% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Set annual rent against average income of $27,658 and the ratio lands at 40%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.

Sitting well above the midpoint, economic stress reads 9.1/10. The poverty rate is 36%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 28.2% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Housing insecurity runs 32.7% against 14.2% nationally. Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10.

It sits 1.1 points above the Genesee County average of 4.3. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Flint. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. That is riskier than roughly 70% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 8.8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the MI average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.2 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.