Plymouth-Hubbell Eviction Risk: Elevated

CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 36.4% of adults, against 14.2% nationally. The poverty rate is 36%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Severe burden reaches 26%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. Annualized rent equals 35% of average household income here, past the 30% affordability line, which compresses the margin any screening standard has to work with.

Pulling the other way is rent-regulation exposure, at 2/10. On the high side is economic stress at 8/10. Well under the midpoint is supply constraint, at 2.2/10.

At $996 a month, rents sit 7% under what the rest of Detroit commands. Rent consumes at least 30% of income for 38% of renter households.

Among the 130 mapped neighborhoods of Detroit, it ranks #3 by risk, the upper third. For a like-for-like read, Chandler Park and Mount Olivet score within a fraction of it. Social vulnerability runs high at 8.5/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

The 2 tracts here are tightly clustered, 0 points apart at the extremes.

With little internal variation, 6/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.