State Fair Eviction Risk: Elevated , Detroit

The dominant input is economic stress at 10/10. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 34.3% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

SNAP participation runs 60.9% against 15.2% nationally. The poverty rate is 56%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Annualized rent equals 48% of average household income of $28,403, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 9.7/10. It sits 1.4 points above the Wayne County average of 4.6.

On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 2/10. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Detroit. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

On the national scale it lands near the 78th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Social vulnerability reads 9.5/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Statewide the MI average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.8 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.