State Fair Eviction Risk: Elevated

The strongest single driver of the headline number is economic stress at 10/10. 35% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate.

The poverty rate is 61%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest. Food insecurity affects 59.6% of adults, 41.8 points above the national rate. Annualized rent equals 43% of average household income here, past the 30% affordability line, which compresses the margin any screening standard has to work with.

At $763 a month, rents sit 29% under what the rest of Detroit commands. Disability prevalence reaches 51.0% against a 31.5% national average, which raises the odds a reasonable-accommodation request accompanies any dispute.

On the softer side is rent-regulation exposure, at 2/10. Running cool is supply constraint, at 2.2/10.

That places it #3 of 130 neighborhoods in Detroit. For a like-for-like read, Chandler Park and Michigan-Martin score within a fraction of it.

Social vulnerability runs high at 9.3/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input. Its 2 tracts score within 0 points of one another, so the area figure travels well to individual addresses.

With little internal variation, 6/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.