Neighborhood · Minneapolis, MN

Willard-Hay Eviction Risk: Moderate

4 census tracts · pop 13,136 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.5/10 · range 1.6–6.8

Willard-Hay is a white-black neighborhood in Minneapolis with 4 census tracts and a population of 13,136 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 4.5/10 (Moderate tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 53% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 35% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $1,609/month sits 17% higher than the Minneapolis citywide average ($1,371).

Risk score

4.5

Moderate

4 tracts · population-weighted

Willard-Hay vs Minneapolis How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

53.4% +82%

Minneapolis: 29.3%

Average gross rent

$1,609 +17%

Minneapolis: $1,371

Average HH income

$101,712 +27%

Minneapolis: $80,269

Poverty rate

14.6% -11%

Minneapolis: 16.4%

Renter share

26.2% -50%

Minneapolis: 52.3%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Willard-Hay and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 4 tracts span score 1.6–6.8

Why Willard-Hay scores 4.5

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 4.3–4.3 across tracts

4.3

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 7.2–7.2 across tracts

7.2

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 7.4–9.0 across tracts

8.3

Rent control risk

53% of income on rent · Range 6.0–7.5 across tracts

6.9

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 4.5–7.5 across tracts

6.3

Tenant organizing strength

26% renter households · Range 6.5–8.5 across tracts

7.7

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 5.2–7.0 across tracts

6.3

Economic stress

14.6% below poverty line · Range 1.0–6.4 across tracts

3.6

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 2.3–7.2 across tracts

4.5

Risk score comparison

Willard-Hay vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Willard-Hay?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution

0246810

Spread of 5.2 points from 1.6 to 6.8. This neighborhood crosses multiple risk tiers, so block-by-block conditions vary substantially.

Tracts as heat grid

6.8 6.4 6.2 1.6

Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.

Census tracts

4 tracts in Willard-Hay

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
27053102800	6.8	2,807	58%	$1,264
27053102000	6.4	2,137	80%	$1,231
27053002700	6.2	2,844	33%	$1,389
27053021700	1.6	5,348	51%	$2,058

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 54

Pop-weighted across 4 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 50%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 61%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 53%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 50%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Willard-Hay

Aggregated across 4 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

1,035Total filings (sum)
13.32%Avg annual filing rate
23.4%Peak year (2013)
10.15%Latest filed (2013)

Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)

471Total filings 2020-21
1.3Avg monthly observed
2.3Pre-pandemic baseline
0.63×Ratio to baseline

Pandemic filings ran far below baseline. Tracked under Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN).

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Willard-Hay

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

15.8%Housing insecurity
9.8%Utility shutoff threat
19.1%Food insecurity
15.0%SNAP enrollment
9.8%No health insurance
28.2%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Willard-Hay

What is the eviction-risk score for Willard-Hay?

Willard-Hay scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier) across 4 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Willard-Hay compare to Minneapolis overall?

Willard-Hay scores 1.9 points lower than Minneapolis overall (6.4/10). Renters spend 53% of income on rent vs 29% citywide. Average rent: $1,609 vs $1,371.

What is the average rent in Willard-Hay?

Average gross rent in Willard-Hay is $1,609/month (pop-weighted across 4 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Willard-Hay residents are renters?

26% of Willard-Hay households are renter-occupied (vs 52% in Minneapolis). The neighborhood has 13,136 residents.

Is Willard-Hay a high social-vulnerability area?

Willard-Hay sits in the 54th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Which tracts in Willard-Hay have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Willard-Hay is census tract 27053102800 (score 6.8/10). Across the 4 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 1.6 to 6.8, a spread of 5.2 points.

How safe is Willard-Hay for landlords?

Willard-Hay carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.5/10). Pop-weighted across 4 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Minneapolis as a whole (6.4/10), this neighborhood is lower-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Willard-Hay?

Willard-Hay has 12,650 residents (White-Black Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (56.3%), Black (non-Hispanic) (23.7%), Hispanic / Latino (10.4%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Willard-Hay

6.9 Jordan 3 tracts · pop 8,418 6.8 Harrison 3 tracts · pop 8,764 4.8 Cleveland 2 tracts · pop 6,577 7.4 Hawthorne 2 tracts · pop 4,293 4.7 North Loop 2 tracts · pop 7,349 4.1 Victory 3 tracts · pop 12,667

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Minneapolis

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Willard-Hay.

4.5 Hiawatha 1 tracts · pop 5,082 4.6 North Loop 2 tracts · pop 7,349 4.4 East Harriet 2 tracts · pop 6,402 4.6 Columbia Park 1 tracts · pop 4,367 4.4 Minnehaha 2 tracts · pop 6,053 4.4 Windom 2 tracts · pop 10,152

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