Carr Square Eviction Risk: Moderate , St. Louis

The poverty rate is 45%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. 26% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. 84% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 26.9% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Against St. Louis City at 41.6%, 53% of renters here are cost-burdened. Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1.3/10.

Housing insecurity runs 31.7% against 14.2% nationally. Sitting well above the midpoint, regional political climate reads 8.3/10.

At $767 a month, rents run 23% under what the rest of St. Louis commands. Against the St. Louis City average of 4.4, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.2 points.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 1,238 filings here across 13 tracked years. The worst year on record was 2010, when 13.3% of renter households were served. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

In a typical year about 12.0% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 73% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.