Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #42,763 of 84,120 nationally
Southwest Garden Eviction Risk: Lower , St. Louis
Tract 29510127200 · St. Louis city, MO · pop 4,466 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
For landlords sizing up Southwest Garden in St. Louis, census tract 29510127200 carries a moderate eviction-risk score of 5.5/10. That is riskier than about 57% of US census tracts.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 38% of renter households, a high level, and 11% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,019 a month against an average household income of $72,188 a year, roughly 17% of income at the averages. About 58% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
3.9
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 22%
Stable renters 36%
Owners 42%
Tract context
Occupied units2,204
Renter share58.2%
SVI overall0.39
Poverty rate11.7%
Median income$72,188
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
21
th percentile
Low
Within county
21
th percentile
Low
Within state
53
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Louis and the region
Centroid at 38.6058, -90.2784 · click any tract to drill in
Why Southwest Garden scores 3.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Louis
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.3
State political climate
Missouri legislature & governorship
2.1
Economic stress
11.7% poverty · this tract
2.9
Supply constraint
$1,019 rent vs county FMR
3.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Louis
2.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Louis
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Louis
5.0
How Southwest Garden compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 39
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 40%Socioeconomic
- 18%Household composition
- 68%Racial/ethnic minority
- 47%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 5%Grade B
- 47%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 490Total filings over 13 yrs
- 3.64%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.7%Peak (2004)
- 25Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 53% over the past 13 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 233Total filings 2020-21
- 3.0Avg monthly (observed)
- 2.7Pre-pandemic baseline
- 1.14×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran near baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Southwest Oregon, OR as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.9%Housing insecurity
- 10.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 14.6%Food insecurity
- 11.2%SNAP enrollment
- 8.8%Transit barriers
- 8.5%No health insurance
- 17.9%Frequent mental distress
- 32.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Southwest Garden
The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 5.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from St. Louis eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the St. Louis City County average of 5.8 and above the Missouri statewide average of 4.8. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 13.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 10.0% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 490 eviction filings here over 13 tracked years, with about 3.6% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 4.7% of renter households in 2004.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 29510127200
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 29510127200?
Census tract 29510127200 in the Southwest Garden neighborhood scores 3.9/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 29510127200?
Median gross rent is $1,019/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 38% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 29510127200?
11.7% of residents in tract 29510127200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,466.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 29510127200?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 39th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 40th, household 18th, minority 68th, housing 47th.
Q5
Is tract 29510127200 considered part of Southwest Garden?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 29510127200 fall within Southwest Garden (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 29510127200?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 490 eviction filings across 13 validated years in tract 29510127200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.64% of renter households, peaking at 4.7% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 29510127200 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 1.14× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings returned near baseline. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Southwest Oregon eviction laws, OR), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 29510127200 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 29510127200 compare to St. Louis overall?
Tract 29510127200 scores 3.9/10, higher than the parent city of St. Louis at 3.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Louis eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q10
Was tract 29510127200 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Louis
Top eight tracts in St. Louis ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · MO
Midtown
6.1
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MO
Old North Saint Louis
6.1
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MO
Mount Pleasant
6.1
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MO
College Hill
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MO
Wells Goodfellow
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MO
Columbus Square
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MO
Covenant Blu Grand Center
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MO
Carr Square
6
/ 10 · Elevated
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