Within neighborhood
86
th percentile
High
Neighborhood · Ranked #798 of 84,120 nationally
McGinley Square Eviction Risk: High , Jersey City
Tract 34017005200 · Hudson County, NJ · pop 4,472 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi
Eviction risk in the McGinley Square area of Jersey City centers on tract 34017005200, which scores 7.8/10 (Elevated tier) and is home to 4,472 residents. That ranks it in the top 1% of US census tracts for landlord eviction risk, among the very hardest places in the country to operate.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 54% of renter households, a severe level, and 37% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,161 monthly, set against $52,090 in average yearly household income, roughly 27% of income at the averages. About 77% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
8.7
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 42%
Stable renters 35%
Owners 23%
Tract context
Occupied units1,844
Renter share77.0%
SVI overall0.99
Poverty rate29.0%
Median income$52,090
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
95
th percentile
Very High
Within county
95
th percentile
Very High
Within state
95
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Jersey City and the region
Centroid at 40.7089, -74.0852 · click any tract to drill in
Why McGinley Square scores 8.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Jersey City
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
New Jersey legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
29.0% poverty · this tract
7.3
Supply constraint
$1,161 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Jersey City
8.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
8.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Jersey City
7.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Jersey City
8.0
How McGinley Square compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 99
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 89%Socioeconomic
- 97%Household composition
- 88%Racial/ethnic minority
- 99%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 96%Grade C
- 4%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 1,596Total filings over 4 yrs
- 30.73%Avg annual filing rate
- 36.9%Peak (2014)
- 362Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within McGinley Square. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 24.9%Housing insecurity
- 16.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 32.2%Food insecurity
- 24.5%SNAP enrollment
- 15.8%Transit barriers
- 16.3%No health insurance
- 19.1%Frequent mental distress
- 33.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in McGinley Square
The score leans hardest on rent-control risk at 8.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Jersey City eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Hudson County average of 7.0 and above the New Jersey statewide average of 6.6. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
Princeton eviction risk's Eviction Lab logged 1,596 eviction filings here over 4 tracked years, with about 30.7% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 36.9% of renter households in 2014.
In CDC survey modeling, about 24.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 16.6% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 34017005200
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 34017005200?
Census tract 34017005200 in the McGinley Square neighborhood scores 8.7/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 34017005200?
Median gross rent is $1,161/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 54% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 34017005200?
29.0% of residents in tract 34017005200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,472.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 34017005200?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 99th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 89th, household 97th, minority 88th, housing 99th.
Q5
Is tract 34017005200 considered part of McGinley Square?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 34017005200 fall within McGinley Square (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 34017005200?
Princeton eviction risk Eviction Lab recorded 1,596 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 34017005200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 30.73% of renter households, peaking at 36.9% in 2014. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 34017005200 struggle to pay rent?
About 24.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 16.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 34017005200 compare to Jersey City overall?
Tract 34017005200 scores 8.7/10, higher than the parent city of Jersey City at 8.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Jersey City eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 34017005200 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 4% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Jersey City
Top eight tracts in Jersey City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · NJ
McGinley Square
9.1
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · NJ
McGinley Square
9
/ 10 · Very High
Tract · NJ
34017005801
8.8
/ 10 · High
Tract · NJ
McGinley Square
8.8
/ 10 · High
Tract · NJ
34017005500
8.5
/ 10 · High
Tract · NJ
McGinley Square
8.5
/ 10 · High
Tract · NJ
McGinley Square
8.5
/ 10 · High
Tract · NJ
The Heights
8.4
/ 10 · High
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