Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #31,049 of 84,120 nationally
Townelake at Sayreville Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 34023007102 · Middlesex County, NJ · pop 4,651 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
With a score of 5.1/10, tract 34023007102 in the Townelake at Sayreville area of Sayreville, NJ reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Cost burden runs 28% here against 44.9% across Middlesex County.
Risk score
5.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 4%
Stable renters 9%
Owners 87%
Tract context
Occupied units1,557
Renter share13.2%
SVI overall0.33
Poverty rate4.3%
Median income$138,727
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
43
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
38
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Sayreville and the region
Centroid at 40.4617, -74.3514 · click any tract to drill in
Why Townelake at Sayreville scores 5.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Sayreville
6.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.1
State political climate
New Jersey legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
4.3% poverty · this tract
1.1
Supply constraint
$2,504 rent vs county FMR
6.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Sayreville
5.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Sayreville
7.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Sayreville
4.5
How Townelake at Sayreville compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 33
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 28%Socioeconomic
- 72%Household composition
- 61%Racial/ethnic minority
- 17%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 10Total filings over 1 yrs
- 3.32%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.3%Peak (2015)
- 10Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.0%Housing insecurity
- 5.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 11.4%Food insecurity
- 5.9%SNAP enrollment
- 6.1%Transit barriers
- 8.7%No health insurance
- 14.2%Frequent mental distress
- 22.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Townelake at Sayreville
Average gross rent is $2,504, 46% above the Sayreville average. The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9/10.
On the softer side, economic stress reads 1.1/10. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.8/10. SNAP participation runs 5.9% against 15.2% nationally.
The severe-burden share is 10%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Court records carry 10 eviction filings across 1 observed years. The voucher gap is 15.1%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
It sits 0.6 points below the Middlesex County average of 5.7. The worst year on record was 2015, when 3.3% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 3.3% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 63% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 13% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 34023007102
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 34023007102?
Census tract 34023007102 in the Townelake at Sayreville neighborhood scores 5.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 34023007102?
Median gross rent is $2,504/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 28% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 34023007102?
4.3% of residents in tract 34023007102 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,651.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 34023007102?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 33th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 28th, household 72th, minority 61th, housing 17th.
Q5
Is tract 34023007102 considered part of Townelake at Sayreville?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 34023007102 fall within Townelake at Sayreville (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 34023007102?
Princeton eviction risk Eviction Lab recorded 10 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 34023007102 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.32% of renter households, peaking at 3.3% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 34023007102 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 34023007102 compare to Sayreville overall?
Tract 34023007102 scores 5.1/10, lower than the parent city of Sayreville at 6.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Sayreville eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Sayreville
Top eight tracts in Sayreville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · NJ
Runyon
7.2
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · NJ
Sayre Woods
7.1
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · NJ
Thomas J. Dohany Homes
6.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · NJ
La Mer
6.1
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · NJ
Presidents Park
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · NJ
Melrose
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · NJ
Winding River
5.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · NJ
Park Village
5.6
/ 10 · Elevated
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