Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #52,479 of 84,120 nationally
Dover Shores Eviction Risk: Lower , Toms River
Tract 34029723400 · Ocean County, NJ · pop 3,520 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Tract 34029723400 sits in the Dover Shores area of Toms River eviction risk, NJ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.8/10. The severe-burden share is 50%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
3.8
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5%
Stable renters 4%
Owners 91%
Tract context
Occupied units1,458
Renter share8.2%
SVI overall0.15
Poverty rate2.0%
Median income$94,231
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
42
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
27
th percentile
Low
Within state
14
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Toms River and the region
Centroid at 39.9561, -74.1101 · click any tract to drill in
Why Dover Shores scores 3.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Toms River
4.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.6
State political climate
New Jersey legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
2.0% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,162 rent vs county FMR
5.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Toms River
6.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Toms River
4.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Toms River
5.3
How Dover Shores compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 15
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 19%Socioeconomic
- 76%Household composition
- 23%Racial/ethnic minority
- 4%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 83Total filings over 6 yrs
- 8.14%Avg annual filing rate
- 11.2%Peak (2017)
- 12Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 6 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.8%Housing insecurity
- 4.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.7%Food insecurity
- 4.7%SNAP enrollment
- 5.2%Transit barriers
- 7.7%No health insurance
- 13.9%Frequent mental distress
- 24.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Dover Shores
The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.7/10.
At $2,162 a month, rents run 25% over what the rest of Toms River commands. Against the Ocean County average of 5.0, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.2 points.
SNAP participation runs 4.7% against 15.2% nationally. 56% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, higher than the Ocean County average of 50.5%.
Food insecurity runs 8.7% against 17.8% nationally. Court records carry 83 eviction filings across 6 observed years.
On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 6.9/10. The worst year on record was 2017, when 11.2% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 8.1% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 38th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Only 8% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 2.4/10.
Statewide the NJ average is 6.0, so this tract runs 2.2 points cooler.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 34029723400
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 34029723400?
Census tract 34029723400 in the Dover Shores neighborhood scores 3.8/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 34029723400?
Median gross rent is $2,162/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 56% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 34029723400?
2.0% of residents in tract 34029723400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,520.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 34029723400?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 15th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 19th, household 76th, minority 23th, housing 4th.
Q5
Is tract 34029723400 considered part of Dover Shores?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 34029723400 fall within Dover Shores (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 34029723400?
Princeton eviction risk Eviction Lab recorded 83 eviction filings across 6 validated years in tract 34029723400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 8.14% of renter households, peaking at 11.2% in 2017. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 34029723400 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 34029723400 compare to Toms River overall?
Tract 34029723400 scores 3.8/10, lower than the parent city of Toms River at 4.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Toms River eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Toms River
Top eight tracts in Toms River ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · NJ
Four Seasons
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · NJ
Island Beach Heights
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · NJ
Eagle Trace
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · NJ
34029722001
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · NJ
Bay Shore
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · NJ
The Landings
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · NJ
Chestnut Run
4.7
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · NJ
Maple Shade
4.4
/ 10 · Moderate
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