Census Tract · Ranked #13,349 of 84,120 nationally

Tonawanda Town Eviction Risk: Elevated

Tract 36029008202 · Erie County, NY · pop 3,874

Tract 36029008202 sits in Tonawanda Town eviction risk, NY, carrying an eviction-risk score of 6.9/10. Population here is 3,874. 19% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score

6.9

Elevated

Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 15% Stable renters 22% Owners 63%

Tract context

Occupied units1,815

Renter share37.5%

SVI overall0.67

Poverty rate17.2%

Median income$57,217

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Tonawanda Town and the region

Centroid at 42.9757, -78.8798 · click any tract to drill in

Why Tonawanda Town scores 6.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Tonawanda Town

6.2

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.7

State political climate

New York legislature & governorship

7.3

Economic stress

17.2% poverty · this tract

4.3

Supply constraint

$880 rent vs county FMR

2.5

Rent control risk

Inherited from Tonawanda Town

5.9

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

7.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Tonawanda Town

2.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Tonawanda Town

4.1

How Tonawanda Town compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 67

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

60%Socioeconomic
73%Household composition
11%Racial/ethnic minority
79%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
21%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

12.3%Housing insecurity
7.9%Utility-shutoff threat
14.2%Food insecurity
13.8%SNAP enrollment
8.0%Transit barriers
6.4%No health insurance
17.0%Frequent mental distress
27.5%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Tonawanda Town

The clearest offset is tenant-organizing strength at 2.5/10. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 2.5/10.

Average gross rent is $880, 20% below the Tonawanda Town average. Sitting well above the midpoint, state political climate reads 7.3/10.

Cost burden runs 40% here against 44.6% across Erie County. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

That is riskier than roughly 84% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 7/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

It tracks the Erie County average of 6.8 closely. Annual rent works out to 18% of average household income of $57,217.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 36029008202

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 36029008202?

Census tract 36029008202 in Tonawanda Town scores 6.9/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 36029008202?

Median gross rent is $880/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 40% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 36029008202?

17.2% of residents in tract 36029008202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,874.

How socially vulnerable is tract 36029008202?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 67th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 60th, household 73th, minority 11th, housing 79th.

What share of households in tract 36029008202 struggle to pay rent?

About 12.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 36029008202 compare to Tonawanda Town overall?

Tract 36029008202 scores 6.9/10, higher than the parent city of Tonawanda Town at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tonawanda Town eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 36029008202 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Tonawanda Town

Top eight tracts in Tonawanda Town ranked by composite eviction-risk score.