East Patchogue Eviction Risk: Elevated

At $3,103 a month, rents run 52% over what the rest of East Patchogue commands. The main counterweight is economic stress at 1/10.

The severe-burden share is 27%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.1/10.

The voucher gap is 20.0%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Sitting well above the midpoint, state political climate reads 7.3/10.

On the national scale it lands near the 78th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. At 10% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 3.5/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the NY average is 7.7, so this tract runs 1.7 points cooler. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 2%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.