Pattington Village Eviction Risk: Moderate

The severe-burden share is 37%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay. Annualized rent equals 34% of average household income here, past the 30% affordability line, which compresses the margin any screening standard has to work with.

66% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building two streets over. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure, at 2/10.

The poverty rate is 21%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Court records for this tract carry 223 eviction filings. The worst year on record was 2016, when filings touched 9.5% of renter households.

That places it #1 of 107 neighborhoods in Raleigh. Judgments average 5.5% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. For a like-for-like read, The Grey and Rollingwood score within a fraction of it.

Social vulnerability runs high at 7.8/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input. Average gross rent runs $1,591, close to the Raleigh average.

Because the boundary contains one tract, 5.5/10 is simultaneously the area figure and the address-level figure. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.